11/20/2023, 4:28 pm EST

Madden Julian Oscillation Becomes Active And Transient

  Fig. 1: Madden Julian oscillation 14-day forecast by all models and shift through phase_3 to phase_5 typical climate patterns. Discussion: The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) has recently dropped anchor on the eastern equatorial Pacific/tropical Atlantic stretch. However, eastward progress with strengthening is indicated by all forecast models today. The MJO shifts through phase_2 this week and into phase_3 late week/weekend (Fig. 1). The correlating influence on climate is cooler in the U.S., wetter for Australia, and drier for Brazil. Forecast models vary in strength but are agreeable to a farther eastward shift to Maritime Continent in the 10+ day timeframe. In that location, support for wet climate in Australia and dry weather in Brazil continues. As MJO reaches phase_5, the U.S. is likely to rewarm. MJO shift across the Indian Ocean to Maritime Continent is unusual occurrence for an El Nino episode. Normally, MJO is located across the anomalous warm waters of the equatorial East Pacific or dormant. If MJO continues an eastward trek across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the middle third of December expect El Nino to gain strength and the U.S. to observe prohibitive warmth.