05/29/2023, 3:01 pm EDT

Transient Madden Julian Oscillation Supports Cool-down in East U.S. Next Week

Highlight: Transient MJO supports a cool-down in the East U.S. Fig. 1: The 15-day MJO forecast indicates an eastward shift from the equatorial East Pacific to the western Indian Ocean. Discussion: The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) will shift from the equatorial East Pacific over the next week to the western tropical Indian Ocean in 11-15 days (Fig. 1). Signs of the eastward shift are already indicated as the southern oscillation index has shifted out of negative phase (Fig. 2). Additional eastward progression of the MJO will cause a cooler pattern-change across the East U.S. beginning early next week. Fig. 2: MJO influence in the Pacific causing an El Nino-like negative southern oscillation index is fading as SOI shifts back to neutral phase.