11/23/2022, 10:50 am EST

Daily AG Market Report: A drier look in Northern Argentina to Southeast Brazil. Mississippi River precipitation forecasts are wetter. Watching arctic air evolution.

Fig. 1: The GFS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast across South America. Discussion: The South America 15-day precipitation outlook trends wetter for North and East Brazil thanks to a quasi-stationary upper-level low-pressure trough in Southeast Brazil (Fig. 1). However, as observed last summer, on the back side of these convective rains, subsidence is strong and dries out the atmosphere causing a drier trend for Northern Argentina, Paraguay, and Southeast Brazil. Fig. 2: The GFS 15-day percent of normal precipitation across the U.S. In the U.S., the Mississippi River Valley forecast is trending wetter (Fig. 2). The overall trend is for this region to stay wetter than previously forecast by climate models heading toward mid-winter. Additionally, western Texas and the southwest Great Plains are at increased risk of “sneaky cold” weather causing (locally) snow and ice conditions. The West and North-central U.S. are going to shift into a snowy pattern and following cold the next 2 weeks. Fig. 3-4: The mega-cluster ensemble “most likely” medium-range temperature anomaly forecast for the northern hemisphere. Eastern Europe, Western Russia and Ukraine are trending snowy and cold more so than indicated by previously issued climate forecasts. This trend should continue. The mega-cluster ensemble medium range “most likely” temperature anomaly forecasts indicate cold risk across most of Russia extending to China and into Europe (Fig. 3-4). The cold may be stronger than indicated in Russia. Note that cold also regenerates over western Canada and into the West U.S.