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02/05/2019, 1:42 pm EST

Western Russia Spring Precipitation Outlook

MAR, APR and MAY 2019 ENSO-based Precipitation Anomaly forecasts for Western Russia and Black Sea Region Western Russia/Black Sea Discussion: During March dry persistence affects Western Russia while the Black Sea region is wetter (Fig. 1). There is an active southern latitude storm track brining precipitation to the Black Sea region while to the north dryness dominates. In April the dryness shifts to Central Europe while much of Western Russia to Black Sea region observed near normal precipitation (Fig. 2). There is potential for MJO to force onset of an El Nino climate increasing risk of wet weather to Europe and Western Russia although Black Sea region is dry (Fig. 3). Fig. 1-3: ENSO-based precipitation anomaly forecast for Western Russia and the Black Sea region for meteorological spring months. Summer Ridge Pattern Discussion: The CIC constructed analog aggressively supports evolution of a persistent 500 MB ridge pattern over the northern Black Sea region. This scenario would produce anomalous heat and dryness for Southwest Russia, Black Sea region and into Eastern Europe. Fig. 4: ENSO-based 500 MB anomaly forecast for Western Russia and the Black Sea region for meteorological summer months.
02/04/2019, 12:28 pm EST

AG Round-up: MAR/APR/MAY Monthly Rainfall Forecasts

United States Discussion: The late winter U.S. precipitation bias is widespread wetter-than-normal. ENSO is neutral but there is risk of El Nino regenerating later this spring. The constructed analog forecast may be too dry (due to an active MJO) in the Mid-South region for March and April (Fig. 1-2). The emerging wet weather in the Southeast U.S., Nebraska and California in April is a confident forecast.  The wet pattern during May in the Great Plains is also a confident forecast linked to possible re-emergence of El Nino (Fig. 3). Fig. 1-3: ENSO-based precipitation anomaly forecast for the U.S. for meteorological spring months. Europe Discussion: During late winter the concern is low river levels, about 40% of this time last year with generally dry short/medium-range forecasts coupled with more dryness for Central Europe in March and April (Fig. 4-5). The April forecast is exceptionally dry! The ENSO-based constructed analog indicates a wet pattern change emerges during May (Fig. 6). The catalyst to the forecast is a decelerating El Nino (dry) into mid-spring with a possible return toward an El Nino climate (wet) by late spring. Fig. 4-6: ENSO-based precipitation anomaly forecast for Europe for meteorological spring months. South America Discussion: While February offers a wetter Brazil/drier Argentina pattern change the trend in March is back to NOV/DEC/JAN 2018-19 persistence as northern Argentina goes wet again (Fig. 7).  In April dryness is becoming more dominant in both Argentina and Interior Brazil while eastern Brazil is wetter (Fig. 8). The precipitation regime trends toward normal by late autumn (Fig. 9). Fig. 7-9: ENSO-based precipitation anomaly forecast for South America for meteorological autumn months. Australia Discussion: The constructed analog produces a different precipitation regime compared to dynamic models. The emphasis is on regeneration El Nino or (a more likely scenario) an active MJO pattern. The north and northeast part of Australia is now forecast drier than normal in north and northeast zones for early-to-middle autumn (Fig. 10-11). The extended-range outlook for May is also dry across Queensland (Fig. 12). Fig. 10-12: ENSO-based precipitation anomaly forecast for Australia for meteorological autumn months. Methodology Discussion: The constructed analog forecast is a “baseline” projection utilizing analog years from within the modern climate (Fig. 13). The modern climate is based on long-term cycles of ENSO/PDO and AMO plus the polar ice cap regime (Fig. 13). ENSO analog years are based on past regimes similar to 2018-19 (La Nina to weak El Nino and what followed). Analogs indicate El Nino does not return except for 2015 which leaves risk of a resurgent strong El Nino (Fig. 14). Fig. 13: The 1953-2018 arctic sea ice extent identifies significant constriction the past 20 years due to CO2 emissions. The influence on climate is sufficiently evident to limit selection of ENSO analogs to the past 20 years. Fig. 14: The ENSO analog years selected from the past 2 decades in which La Nina transitioned top weak El Nino and what followed.
01/25/2019, 11:35 am EST

AG Markets Roundup

South America: Does ARG go dry in February? Days 1-5: Heavy rain in northeast ARG this morning. The GFS indicates showers are likely the next 2 afternoons in Sao Paulo to southern Minas Gerais expanding westward to southern Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso Do Sul into early next week. The Mato Grosso/Mato Grosso Do Sul rainfall could be beneficial. More heavy rain in northeast Argentina as observed this morning. Otherwise dryness dominates. Days 6-10: The models are very dry in BRZ which is correct. Residual moisture/feedback in northern ARG ignites showers there only. Days 11-15: Proposed by GFS is some marginal rainfall across Parana and Sao Paulo. Meanwhile ARG is dry. The proposed rainfall benefiting the dry/drought area is questionable. The dry trend in northern ARG is likely correct. Week 3-4 outlook: Dryness in ARG is expected to develop. BRZ drought should continue. The best risk of showers is in BRZ but persistence is so strong that going with wet pattern change there is highly unlikely. United States: Historic cold pointed at Chicago. Days 1-5: Due to +AAM an eye out for high wind events is very important. Wind gust 55-65 mph across Nebraska ahead of a cold front on Monday is indicated. Similar wind speeds roar across the Ohio Valley later Monday. An arctic air core is located just north of Minnesota today intensifying in Ontario this weekend. Super cold for the Midwest/Upper Midwest but moderating sharply south of snow cover in the Great Plains late weekend. The next arctic air mass is as intense as the weekend event over Ontario except this time the core settles over Minnesota to Iowa. The upper air supports record cold for TUE. Days 6-10: The arctic core is over Chicago Wednesday morning. The all-time record in Chicago is -27. The conservative forecast is currently -20. The deep cold departs gradually late next week/weekend and the Great Plains warms up again. Days 11-15: The GFS brings 2 more arctic air masses in the 11-15 day period. In general the models are trying to warm the U.S. pattern. However, -AO continues so additional cold makes sense for this time frame. This time there may be more snow for the northern Plains. Week 3-4 outlook: The models want to subtract the cold from the U.S. pattern. However, the colder ideas especially for the Midwest are preferred encouraged by snow cover. Europe: Storms/high wind events. Days 1-5: Another intense storm on the Southeast Europe coast this morning. Heavy rains are occurring except snows inland over mountain areas. The storm weakens over western Turkey by early Sunday. The next storm rolls across U.K. tomorrow reaching Germany Sunday. Mild enough for mostly rain along the storm track. High wind episode across U.K. Saturday night/Sunday into France later Sunday. Another storm into France MON/TUE with high wind Spain. Plenty of snow across Western Russia but no arctic air. Days 6-10: Another storm off Italy to southwest Turkey early period. Heavy rains for far Southeast Europe. The next storm rolls across U.K. late next week with another high wind episode Spain/France. Maritime influence biases the climate mild. Days 11-15: The GFS introduces a strong arctic high pressure system in Western Russia causing the European storm track to shift west and affect Western Europe only. Cold air stays in Western Russia. Week 3-4 outlook: The climate pattern is more supportive of milder marine influence versus arctic air from Russia. Australia: Northern areas are wet (only). Days 1-5: Tropical Cyclone Riley is moving away from the northwest Australia coast. Another tropical low pressure area is affecting northeast Australia. Coastal Queensland is showery through the weekend. There may be more tropical downpours across northern Queensland early next week. Models are very hot across New South Wales into early next week. Days 6-10: There is a risk of substantial rain over northeast Australia related to the Monsoon. Some of that rain could sneak south toward Queensland but rely on that projection with caution. The ECM is less hot while the GFS maintains anomalous heat across Southern Australia and adds Western Australia. Days 11-15: The GFS is hottest/driest while ECM offers heat suppressing rains. Cautiously favoring the ECM solution to be consistent. Week 3-4 outlook: There is no compelling reason to doubt dryness and anomalous heat dominating the Australian climate.
12/23/2018, 10:50 am EST

Sunday U.S. Report

Highlight: Slowly colder but doubting arctic air impact. Snowier! MJO supports a colder U.S. pattern in January. Stratospheric warming looms as an arctic air producer…cold burst potential. Day 1-5 Outlook (Dec. 23-27, 2018): Next major storm WED/THU Central U.S. Some light snow/rain Northeast U.S. Christmas Eve. Storm track shifts from Northwest U.S. SUN/MON to northern California MON/TUE. Organizing West-central/Central U.S. storm WED; steady and heavier snows Wyoming to Dakotas. Heavy rains/thunderstorms Mid-South THU (snow into Upper Midwest). Fig. 1-2: Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for days 1-5 ahead. Day 6 to 10 Outlook (Dec. 28, 2018-Jan. 1, 2019): Stormy/colder. Snowstorm early period from southwest Great Plains to Upper Midwest U.S. to New England. Mid-to-late period heavy rains in the Gulf of Mexico region. Widening cold across fresh snow cover West; pieces of arctic air touching the U.S./Canada border. Fig. 3-4: Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for days 6-10 ahead. Day 11-15 Outlook (Jan. 2-6, 2019): Colder but no arctic air. Snowy Ohio Valley to New England. Continued stormy in the Southeast; milder/drier Northwest. Fig. 5-6: Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for days 11-15 ahead. Week 3 (Jan. 6-12) and week 4 (Jan. 13-19) outlook: Colder. Signs of MJO inspired East U.S. cold trough. Snow cover increase. Support for cold increasing. Doubting arctic air, however. Fig. 7-8: Climate Impact Company week 3/week 4 ahead temperature anomaly forecasts for the U.S. Gas population weight 4-week HDD forecast: The trend is colder for middle January and cold bias is East/Northeast. Fig. 9: CIC week 4 verification/forecast of weekly departure from normal of gas population weight HDD. Fig. 10: CIC week 4 forecast of weekly departure from normal of gas population weight HDD by U.S. region. Fig. 11: The ECMWF 30-day MJO forecast indicates a progressive nature supporting a warm U.S. pattern in December shifting toward colder support in January.