02/25/2024, 12:55 pm EST

Daily AG Market Round-up: The U.S. Sunday report.

Fig. 1: The latest NOAA/NWS weather watch, warning, and advisory areas.   Discussion: The week starts with mild southwesterly wind across much of the eastern half of the U.S. while an incoming storm strikes the entire Northwest U.S. tomorrow prompting issuance of widespread High Wind warnings and advisories plus mountain area Winter Storm Warning’s for heavy snow (Fig. 1). High wind also develops across the Western Great Plains tomorrow where Red Flag Warning’s are posted. By Tuesday, a large area of snow stretches from the Great Basin to North-central U.S. while gusty southwest wind warms the remainder of the Great Plains and into the East. During this sequence, areas of heavy precipitation affect the Northwest and Interior West U.S. with developing showers in the Ohio Valley (Fig. 2). A wedge of cooler air pushes through the Great Plains on Wednesday while wet weather shifts through the East followed by another Coastal Northwest storm on Thursday (Fig. 3). The focus of storminess is on the West U.S. including California late this week into next weekend (Fig. 4).   Fig. 2-4: The NOAA/WPC quantitative precipitation forecasts for the next 72 hours, days 4-5, and days 6-7 across the U.S.    The U.S. medium-range forecast remains warm combining both the GFS and ECM. The most intense warmth is across the Upper Midwest in the 6-10-day period (Fig. 5) shifting to New England in the 11-15-day period (Fig. 6). The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast maintains very low national heating demand into early March (Fig. 7). Fig. 5-6: Combining GFS and ECM equally to produce the medium-range temperature anomaly forecast.    Fig. 7: The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast using all models and their consensus and compared with 48 hours ago plus the 30-year/10-year normal.