08/18/2022, 9:32 am EDT

Daily AG Market Round-up: Latest NOAA long-lead forecasts.

Highlight: Latest NOAA/CPC long-lead climate forecasts. Fig. 1: NOAA/CPC U.S. seasonal drought outlook. Discussion: NOAA/CPC issues new long-lead climate forecasts including a new seasonal drought monitor (Fig. 1). The seasonal drought outlook indicates several important changes. First, the drought across Texas and Oklahoma is forecast to continue but weaken considerably over the next 1-3 months. Drought is eliminated in parts of the Mid-south States. The drought across the west/central Great Plains continues and also affects southern Iowa and parts of Minnesota. Drought development is likely in the western Dakotas. The Southwest U.S. drought continues to ease while California/Great Basin drought stays torrid. The September 2022 outlook favors late season heat across the southwest sector of the U.S. with warm/humid weather in New England (Fig. 2). Dry climate is dominant in the North-central U.S. while the Southeast trends wet (Fig. 3). The meteorological autumn forecast favors anomalous warmth across most of the U.S. (Fig. 4) with dryness dominating the West-central U.S. eastward to the Appalachian Spine. Only Florida and Washington have a wet risk for the autumn season (Fig. 5). The winter outlook favors warmth across the South and East U.S. with equal chances of below, above or normal in the Central U.S. (Fig. 6). The precipitation outlook indicates classic La Nina climate with dryness across California and the remainder of the Southern U.S. (Fig. 7). Stormy risk is centered on the Ohio Valley. Fig. 2-3: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability forecast for September 2022. Fig. 4-5: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability forecast for SEP/OCT/NOV 2022. Fig. 6-7: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability forecast for DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23.