Highlight: If El Nino ends quickly and La Nina emerges after mid-2024, what will rainfall pattern be across warm season in U.S., Europe, Russia, and China? Executive summary: According to a Reuters report issued October 19, “El Nino to continue into mid-2024, threatening agriculture”. However, ENSO may shift rapidly out of El Nino to neutral ENSO by late Q2/2024 with La Nina to follow somewhere during JUN/JUL/AUG 2024 (Fig. 1). While La Nina is generating, the NCP CFS V2 global SSTA forecast maintains the unusual anomalous warmth of the mid-latitude oceans common during the past 10 years (Fig. 2). Using the ENSO projection of El Nino during Q1/2024 into La Nina by Q3/2024 coupled with an optimum climate normal (OCN) representative of the mid-latitude ocean warming of the past 10 years, a preliminary climate forecast for the 2024 warm season across the U.S., Europe, Russia, and China is generated. Fig. 1: The NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast identifying the 8 most recent forecast members and the consensus of all models. Fig. 2: The NCEP CFS V2 global SSTA forecast for May 2024 identifies developing La Nina and the dominant warmth of mid-latitude oceans. Forecast discussion: A constructed analog (CA) is used to produce temperature and precipitation forecasts for MAY/JUN/JUL and JUL/AUG/SEP 2024 for the U.S., Europe, Russia, and China. The CA forecast is based on decelerating El Nino to La Nina conditions as identified by the operational Nino index (ONI) coupled with the 2014-2023 OCN climate. United States: Entering 2024, dry soil conditions are present across the East-central U.S. including the U.S. Corn Belt and soybean growing areas. The drought condition has continued to prolong low water levels on the Mississippi River. The El Nino-biased climate is likely to maintain dryness in the Midwest while the South-central U.S. trends wetter. However, once the ENSO transition has reversed toward La Nina a pattern change is expected. Wet climate develops during MAY/JUN/JUL 2024 in the Midwest States while the Gulf Coast (and vicinity) reverses from a wet to dry climate. During MAY/JUN/JUL 2024, most of the U.S. (except California) is warmer than normal. The JUL/AUG/SEP 2024 outlook maintains wet climate in the Midwest U.S. while most of the U.S. is hotter than normal except for the West Coast. Bottom line? The Midwest U.S. (and vicinity) shifts into a wet climate for the 2024 warm season largely related to the shifting ENSO regime. Fig. 3-4: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for the U.S. valid MAY/JUN/JUL 2024. Fig. 5-6: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for the U.S. valid JUL/AUG/SEP 2024. Europe/Russia: During late 2023, a wet pattern erased Europe and Western Russia drought. Only Southern France and Italy have a drought condition. As ENSO shifts toward La Nina as midyear approaches, coupled with the anomalous warm North Atlantic, the MAY/JUN/JUL 2024 climate pattern across Europe and Western Russia features 2 regimes. Dryness with very warm temperatures is likely across the Russia spring wheat zone where summer 2024 drought risk develops. Southeast and East Europe are wet suppressing heat risk. During JUL/AUG/SEP 2024 the Russia spring wheat zone shifts into full-blown drought although not far away Northwest Russia is wet. Anomalous heat follows the Russia spring wheat drought. The Black Sea region turns hot and dry mid-to-late summer 2024. Europe avoids drought during summer 2024 except for France where a full-blown drought emerges mid-to-late summer. Bottom line? Drought in 2024 is ahead targeting France and especially the Russia spring wheat zone and the Black Sea region mid-to-late summer. Fig. 7-8: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for Europe/Russia valid MAY/JUN/JUL 2024. Fig. 9-10: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for Europe/Russia valid JUL/AUG/SEP 2024. China: Soil conditions as mid-winter approaches is satisfactory across wheat-growing areas. However, dryness is affecting soils across the far northern and southern corn/soybean areas. As ENSO shifts out of El Nino and toward La Nina during MAY/JUN/JUL 2024, a wet climate is projected across much of China especially wheat-growing zones. During JUL/AUG/SEP 2024, the outlook is hotter than normal although the wet bias in much of the wheat growing areas continues. Bottom line? The early look at 2024 China crop areas does not favor a major drought. Fig. 11-12: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for China/India valid MAY/JUN/JUL 2024. Fig. 13-14: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for China/India valid JUL/AUG/SEP 2024. Summary/conclusions: While drought concern for the northern hemisphere warm season 2024 is certainly warranted, the drought inspiration is likely away from El Nino and more to do with an ENSO transition toward La Nina coupled with the influence on climate of warmer than normal mid-latitude oceans. The outlook indicates drought risk is highest for Russia spring wheat and followed by France and the Black Sea region. The Midwest U.S. and much of China avoids a major drought during the 2024 warm season.