11/21/2022, 4:47 am EST

AG Market Weather/Climate Research: Forecast confidence for a cold late winter in the Central U.S. including Texas increases.

Highlight: Forecast confidence for a cold late winter in the Central U.S. including Texas increases. Fig. 1: Climate Impact Company February 2023 U.S. temperature anomaly outlook. Discussion: The current Climate Impact Company (CIC) U.S. temperature anomaly outlook for February 2023 is cold and possibly very cold in the Central U.S. including Texas (Fig. 1). The CIC Outlook is based on a constructed analog most concerned with historical relationships large areas of anomalous sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and prevalent in the modern-day climate. Specifically, the added attention generating climate forecasts is on the tendency of mostly warm SSTA patterns persisting in the middle latitudes of both the northern and southern hemisphere oceans. However, an added feature (for February) to validate the cold February forecast was discussed in research published in the Nov. 1, 2022, Journal of Climate article entitled “Role of Atmosphere-ocean-ice Interaction in the Linkage between December Bering Sea Ice and Subsequent February Surface Air Temperature Over North America” by J. Zhao, S. He and H. Wang. The research concludes that the tendency of below normal sea ice concentration early in the cold season as observed now in the Bering Sea and northward (Fig. 2) expanding mid-to-late winter and peaking in February as observed last year (Fig. 3) leads to a latent heat release that amplifies a high-pressure ridge north of Hawaii and sometimes over Alaska on average the past 20 years (Fig. 4) which is compensated for by a downstream polar vortex over South-central Canada causing a tendency for cold to very cold Central U.S. temperatures the last month of meteorological winter (Fig. 5). Fig. 2-3: The absence of sea ice in the Bering Sea (and northward) has become common during the early cold season of the past 20 years although expansion of sea ice is vigorous mid-to-late winter peaking in February as observed last year. Fig. 4-5: The February upper air pattern for 2001-2022 features a polar vortex signature over South-central Canada. The attendant temperature anomalies identify significant cold risk in the Central U.S. Summary: Forecast confidence in the cold February 2023 forecast for the Central U.S. increases based on the Bering Sea ice late season ice expansion correlation to the North America climate pattern.      
11/16/2022, 4:57 am EST

Argentina Marine Heat Wave Influencing South America Climate

Executive summary: Climate Impact Company frequently identifies the Northeast Pacific marine heat wave (“warm blob”) and more recently the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) as regional SSTA having a profound influence on atmospheric circulation affecting North America and Europe climate. In the current American Meteorological Society Journal of Climate, research identifying and explaining the marine heat wave off the East Asia Coast and the attendant dramatic influence on East Asia climate was published. New to the oceanic global climate influencers are these large areas of anomalous warm and cool zones, part of climate change, that help to explain unusual climate patterns and help to predict future dramatic climate regimes. Added to the list, is the marine heat wave east of Argentina which in November 2022 is strengthening. Fig. 1-2: Emerging marine heat wave east of Argentina and the correlating November 2022 (so far) upper air pattern. Discussion: The marine heat wave east of Argentina, also referred to as the Argentina “warm blob” is vividly identified in the daily South Atlantic SSTA analysis (Fig. 1). The upper air pattern for November 2022 (so far) identifies the correlation of these warm oceanic zones to upper-level high-pressure ridging amplified along the Argentina Coast (Fig. 2). The warm SSTA region is gaining strength (Fig. 3) and 15-day forecasts maintain the upper-level ridge pattern east of Argentina heading toward the start of meteorological summer (Fig. 4). Fig. 3-4: The 30-day SSTA change across the South Atlantic basin and the ECM ENS 15-day upper air forecast. Fig. 5-6: The precipitation anomalies across South America in November so far and the daily South America soil moisture analysis. The evolving upper ridge is causing the November 2022 precipitation climate pattern to turn drier in Southern Brazil (Fig. 5) as the wet spring pattern in this location is clearly abating. A dry spring across Argentina has already caused dry soils and drought for that zone (Fig. 6). Climate Impact Company projects the dry pattern in Argentina to expand northward during the summer 2022-23 season. Note that to the north of the warmer than normal oceans east of Argentina, an area of cooler (near normal) SSTA is present off the Brazil Coast. Also note the persistent upper-level low-pressure trough just west of the cooler SSTA zone over southeast Brazil during November (so far). The 15-day outlook identifies the presence of this upper trough maintain that position and causing wet weather across eastern and northern portions of Brazil (Fig. 7). So…while Argentina dryness is likely to spread north, a wet pattern across north and east Brazil is not far away and likely sustained into the approaching summer season. Fig. 7: The ECM ENS 15-day rainfall anomaly forecast across South America. Summary: The strengthening “warm blob” of SSTA to the east of Argentina is well-correlated to anomalous high-pressure ridging aloft. At times, that high-pressure influence causes dryness and anomalous heat in Argentina likely to expand northward into Southern Brazil during the summer season. To compensate for the upper ridge, a wet low-pressure trough (correlated to slightly cool SSTA east of Brazil) is also likely to persist and cause a wet pattern for north and east portions of Brazil into the summer 2022-23 season.    
10/26/2022, 4:55 am EDT

Climate Impact Company Research: Update on the North Pacific “Warm Blob” and explaining optimum climate normal.

Fig. 1: NOAA/SFSC identifies presence of Northeast Pacific “warm blob” episodes from 1982-2022. Discussion: The Marine Heat Wave Tracker is a monitoring system developed by the NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center. The initial intent was to identify, quantify and explain the 2014-2016 sudden shallow and deep layer anomalous warm ocean water located in the Northeast Pacific (Fig. 1). Since the initialization of the Northeast Pacific “warm blob” in 2014-2016 a semi-permanent character of this oceanic feature has evolved. The correlation to 500 MB heights is astounding and influence on northern hemispheric climate during 2014-2022 unique and potentially identifying this period as an optimum climate normal (OCN). While a typical climatology is based on the average weather of a 30-year period, sometimes climate patterns of much shorter duration are generated in which short-term weather regimes are somewhat different than the standard 30-year climatology. The Northeast Pacific “warm blob” regime of 2014-2022 has caused an OCN to form. The latest “warm blob” is impressive! NEP22A formed in January 2022 and has reached an intensity and aerial coverage justifying the 4th strongest “warm blob” in the 1982-2022 climatology according to NOAA/SFSC (Fig. 2). A second “warm blob” is located off the southwest California Coast (NEP22B). Fig. 2: NOAA/SFSC identifies the Northeast Pacific SSTA regime for October 23, 2022, identifying the “warm blob” NEP22A and NEP22B. During 2014-2021 when the Northeast Pacific “warm blob” is semi-permanent, the upper air pattern across the North and Northeast Pacific has featured a persistent well-amplified semi-permanent high-pressure ridge (Fig. 3). To compensate for the upper-level high-pressure ridge, a downstream trough has emerged typically positioned over Central Canada. The semi-permanent character of these two upper air features caused an increase in long-term drought strength for the U.S. West Coast, particularly California and the susceptibility to “polar vortex” weather events such as sharp winter cold outbreaks. The 2022 northern hemisphere upper air pattern has generally maintained 2014-2021 features (Fig. 4). Fig. 3: The 500 MB anomalies across the northern hemisphere for 2014-2021 identifying the presence of the semi-permanent Northeast Pacific ridge and downstream central Canada trough identifying an optimum climate normal. Fig. 4: The 2014-2021 northern hemisphere upper air pattern is maintained in 2022 based on 500 MB anomalies. Not identified in this report is the presence of the semi-permanent North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) which is an area of cool SSTA south and southeast of Greenland generally present since 2014. Aloft, a semi-permanent upper-level low-pressure trough has formed across this cool water zone and is compensated for by a persistent upper-level high-pressure ridge over Europe which helps to explain the tendency for warmer and drier than normal climate risk in Europe the past near-decade. The trough/ridge pattern described over the North Atlantic and Europe may be linked to the Northeast Pacific “warm blob” climate. The persistent 2014-2022 northern hemisphere climate pattern is considered (by Climate Impact Company) as an OCN regime. Based on the 2014-2022 OCN, minus El Nino winter seasons, the VERY likely prevailing upper air pattern across North America for upcoming meteorological winter features the “warm blob” ridge in the Northeast Pacific and a downstream “polar vortex” centered on Western Canada (Fig. 5). Western Canada will experience above normal snowfall and periods of extreme cold during upcoming winter. This location becomes a source region for anomalous chill and possibly arctic air during winter 2022-23. Occasionally, the cold air surges into the U.S. and based on the positioning of the polar vortex is most likely to target the Interior West and Central U.S. Fig. 5: Based on the Northeast Pacific-inspired OCN, the most likely upper air pattern for North America for upcoming meteorological winter is indicated.  
10/23/2022, 1:17 pm EDT

AG Market Weather/Climate Research: Updating Global SSTA, Soil Moisture and November 2022 Expectations

Headline: Updating global SSTA climate influence areas, global soil moisture conditions and a November 2022 analog projection. Fig. 1: Daily global SSTA analysis and annotated regions identifying climate influence areas. Discussion: Most climate influencing SSTA regions are warm during early Q4/2022 (Fig. 1). Included are typical (of the past 10 years) mid-latitude marine heat waves (MHW) also known as “warm blobs”. The most famous “warm blobs” are in the Northeast Pacific (NEP22A and NEP22B) and each has intensified during recent weeks, especially of the West Coast of Canada. The tendency for western mid-latitude ocean basins vividly remains east of China and southeast of Canada. An immense MHW continues across the central/west Mediterranean Sea. In the southern hemisphere, MHW persist east of Australia and east of Argentina plus off the South Coast of Africa. Notice the regions of climate influence are immense in each hemisphere and added to negative Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD) and La Nina).   The correlation of the SSTA regions to prevailing northern and southern hemisphere climate is profound. In the northern hemisphere, we begin with MHW NEP22A and NEP22B and the correlating intense upper-level high-pressure ridge emerging just downwind across West Canada and the Northwest U.S. (Fig. 2). MHW inspired upper-level high-pressure ridge areas are also located on the Dateline in the North Pacific and northwest North Atlantic basin. The ridge areas came first! To compensate for the ridge areas, an upper trough has emerged northeast of Hawaii and on the U.S. East Coast. The Mediterranean Sea MHW has sustained an upper-level high-pressure ridge during October across Southwest Europe while warm SSTA off the North Coast of Russia is well-correlated to a Central Russia ridge. In the southern hemisphere, MHW-inspired upper-level high-pressure ridge areas are vividly on display during October east of New Zealand and either side of Argentina (Fig. 3). The New Zealand ridge which also stretches to the south of Australia is compensated for by a wet upper-level low-pressure trough in Eastern Australia. Before correlating the regional SSTA to the most likely November 2022 upper air pattern for both hemispheres using a constructed analog, a quick review of global soil moisture conditions is provided. In the U.S., the 2022 drought pattern has become impressive still featuring long-term drought in the West U.S. and an intensifying and widening character so far in October across the central U.S. (Fig. 4). There is no question that a leading catalyst to the expanding 2022 drought pattern in the U.S. is related to the warm SSTA patterns in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Similarly, the Mediterranean Sea MHW inspired the ongoing Europe drought (Fig. 5). Warm SSTA off the East Asia Coast inspired speedy drought evolution in China (Fig. 6). In South America, warm SSTA either side of Argentina has contributed to a new drought for that region (Fig. 7). The New Zealand MWH caused a persistent ridge to continue and compensated for a wet trough sustaining historical wet soils in East Australia (Fig. 8). The updated SSTA-based constructed analog forecast projecting the prevailing upper air pattern for the northern and southern hemisphere during November 2022 is very instructive as to where high impact weather/climate events will occur. First, in the northern hemisphere (Fig. 9), the upper trough northeast of Hawaii and to the north of Hawaii in October will phase and produce a strong Gulf of Alaska (GOA) low-pressure area for November. Significant wet weather is likely on the Canadian West Coast while snows pile in Alaska. To compensate for the trough, a full-latitude upper ridge is projected across Central North America likely to sustain and intensify the widespread drought. The October Mid-Atlantic trough shifts offshore keeping the East temperate and blocking most of the Ventral U.S. warmth from reaching the East Coast. In Eurasia, the Mediterranean Sea MHW-inspired ridge shifts eastward toward the Middle East and a broad upper-level low-pressure trough is introduced to Northwest and Southwest Europe. Colder wind moving across the open ocean north of Russia creates ocean-effect snow cover causing the atmosphere aloft to cool and evolution of an upper trough in Central Russia. In the southern hemisphere, the New Zealand high-pressure ridge continues and the compensating wet trough in Southeast Australia producing more heavy rain continues (Fig. 10). The warm SSTA either side of Argentina maintain a high-pressure presence promoting drought (for Argentina) during November. Also note that the upper trough soaking Southeast Brazil in October shifts offshore likely causing a drier pattern change. Conclusion: Regional SSTA in the middle latitudes continue to have a profound influence on climate as Q4/2022 has started and this influence will certainly continue in November 2022. The SSTA-based constructed analog indicates high impact climate zones for November include an amplifying dry climate producing upper-level high-pressure ridge over central North America, an eastward shift to the Middle East (from Southwest Europe) of the Mediterranean Sea MHW-inspired upper ridge that caused the 2022 Europe drought pattern. In South America, warm SSTA either side of Argentina correlate to strengthening drought while the wet trough across Southeast Brazil during the past few months weakens and moves east causing a drier reversal. The influence of the New Zealand MHW is to soak East Australia and that regime continues during November. Fig. 2: Correlating regional SSTA to the October 2022 (so far) upper air pattern in the northern hemisphere. Fig. 3: Correlating regional SSTA to the October 2022 (so far) upper air pattern in the southern hemisphere. Fig. 4-8: Current soil moisture anomalies across the U.S., Europe, Asia, South America, and Australia. Fig. 9: Based on a constructed analog utilizing past similar early-to-middle Q4 SSTA a projected November 2022 upper air forecast for the northern hemisphere. Fig. 10: Based on a constructed analog utilizing past similar early-to-middle Q4 SSTA a projected November 2022 upper air forecast for the southern hemisphere.