01/19/2023, 5:57 pm EST

China Week 2-4 Outlook: China chill eases, warmer/drier pattern to follow.

Charts of the day: Meteorological winter 2022-23 temperature/precipitation anomalies so far. Discussion: Southeast China has averaged colder than normal during meteorological winter 2022-23 so far. North and West portions of China have observed warmer than normal temperature. The precipitation regime is wetter than normal on the Southeast Coast and drier than normal across inland China. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid January 30-February 6, 2023: Patchy chill remains after a cold finish to January across East Asia. Discussion: A cold pattern during the previous week eases. Patchy chilly weather remains across East Asia. Presence of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) in the eastern Indian ocean ignites a heavy rain pattern into Southeast Asia. Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid February 6-13, 2023: MJO-induced rains Southeast Asia to Philippines.   Discussion: MJO wet influence on South/Southeast Asia continues. The wet weather extends to the Philippines. In China, the climate is dry and mostly temperate. Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid February 13-20, 2023: Still dry, milder in China. Discussion: East Asia trends drier with warmer than normal temperatures over Northeast Asia. Philippines remains very wet.