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10/19/2018, 10:55 am EDT

Australia Week 2-4 Outlook

Highlight: Feared dry pattern sets-in. Charts of the day: Australia %Normal Rainfall Since April 1 & Last Week’s Rainfall Discussion: The Australia rainfall pattern has been super dry since April 1 (left). The recent tendency is for wetter weather to occur in the East (right) while the dryness spreads northwestward. Week 2 Ahead: October 28-November 3, 2018 Comment: The feared super dry climate related to +IOD/El Nino is present next week although this particular dry pattern is more likely related to the MJO. Week 3 Ahead: November 4-10, 2018 Comment: The outlook is dry and hot especially across Western Australia. MJO shifting back to the Indian Ocean could ignite wetter weather Western Australia late in the period. Week 4 Ahead: November 11-17, 2018 Comment: Wet risk increases as MJO shifts across the Indian Ocean toward Maritime Continent. Dryness and anomalous heat shift eastward.