India wet threat, more so than models indicate. Some beneficial Argentina rains. Vivid Europe storm track. West drier/East wetter in U.S. medium-range. Fig. 1-2: The daily Indian Ocean SSTA analysis and 15-day total rainfall forecast for India. Discussion: Last week turned wetter across India although the northeast portion of the nation did not receive much rain and consequently dry soils in that zone are strengthening. However, there are wet climate parameters developing. In the northwestern Indian Ocean, the SSTA pattern has become very warm during the past 1-2 weeks (Fig. 1). The warmer than normal SSTA is well-correlated to increased low atmospheric moisture which enables wetter climate patterns. The latest 15-day rainfall forecast across India (Fig. 2) by the GFS indicates areas of heavy precipitation especially near mountain areas. The rainfall for the peninsula could be higher than indicated given the warm SSTA to the west and embedded short-wave energy in the prevailing westerlies aloft. In South America, the Argentina drought roars on. However, wet weather is in the forecast, especially central and southern areas this week (Fig. 3). In the 6-10-day-period the mega-cluster ensemble places rainfall risk across the core of the Argentina drought zone (Fig. 4) likely to persist in the extended-range (Fig. 5). Fig. 3-5: The 15-day precipitation anomaly forecast using the mega-cluster ensemble for South America. Fig. 6-8: The 15-day precipitation anomaly forecast using the mega-cluster ensemble for Europe A storm track stretches across Western Europe to the Baltic States this week (and next) based on the latest mega-cluster ensemble (Fig. 6-8). The drought zone in France to Northern Italy may miss most of the precipitation. Finally, this week should bring the last of the “atmospheric river” storm patch across California (Fig. 9). In the medium range the western half of the U.S. slowly turns drier while the wet weather risk shifts to the East States (Fig. 10-11). Fig. 9-11: The 15-day precipitation anomaly forecast using the mega-cluster ensemble for the U.S.