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02/22/2019, 1:04 pm EST

Global ALERT: A Look at the next 90 days

MAR/APR/MAY 2019 Climate Forecast Comments United States As winter fades the issue is soil moisture. Soil moisture probability ranks in the 95-99 percent wettest in the 1895-2009 climatology. An elevated flood risk is produced by this condition for spring. The Climate Impact Company constructed analog spring precipitation forecast indicates near normal rainfall across most of the Great Plains and across the Ohio Valley. The wet zone is across the Delta and southward to the west and central Gulf States. Elevated flood risk for Kansas and especially Arkansas given the current soil moisture conditions and spring forecast. Madden Julian oscillation Climate Impact Company research has shown that when the MJO shifts east across the central/east equatorial Pacific Ocean during springtime excessive precipitation events occur. We’ve seen that in the recent pattern. Traders/analysts need to be aware of when MJO episodes are crossing the central/east equatorial Pacific Ocean during spring/early summer as the attendant rainfall into areas of extreme soil moisture aggravate flood risk. Fig. 1: Climate Impact Company MAR/APR/MAY 2019 constructed analog precipitation anomaly forecast for North America. Fig. 2: Climate Impact Company MAR/APR/MAY 2019 constructed analog precipitation anomaly forecast for South America. South America There is general agreement between the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast and probabilistic prediction by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society for wet risk in Brazil during MAR/APR/MAY 2019 although the wet climate is not unusually intense. The CIC forecast indicates patchy wet areas in central and southeast Brazil. Conversely, the CIC and IRI forecast indicate no wet risk in Argentina and drier-than-normal regime is possible. Australia CIC constructed analog and IRI probability forecasts are in agreement that dry risk for autumn across Australia is biased toward the western half of the continent. The wet risk in parts of the East is patchy and not particularly impressive, Other than coastal Queensland the Australian drought is likely to continue and spreads westward. Fig. 3: Climate Impact Company MAR/APR/MAY 2019 constructed analog precipitation anomaly forecast for Australia Western Russia There is general agreement between the CIC analog and IRI probability forecast that a general wetter than normal pattern is likely for springtime in the Black Sea region. The CIC outlook is wetter than normal across Western and Central Russia while probability forecasts are drier. The soil moisture trend the past 2 months is less dry for much of this region. The preliminary summer outlook continues to favor an upper ridge pattern over Western Australia. So…this region will need all the rain possible prior to what looks like a hot and dry summer ahead. Fig. 4: Climate Impact Company MAR/APR/MAY 2019 constructed analog precipitation anomaly forecast for Western Russia.  
02/22/2019, 8:42 am EST

South America Week 2-4 Outlook

Highlight: Cool Surges Into Argentina through early March. Charts of the day: Incoming sharp cold front across Argentina Discussion: A sharp cold front moves into central Argentina today reaching northeast Argentina tomorrow and surging across northern Argentina early next week. Extremely hot temperatures, 105-110F are observed across northern Argentina ahead of the cold front fading to 60-65 (during the afternoon) on Monday. Heavy rain, 3+ in. occurs with the cold front in northeast Argentina this weekend and southeast Brazil early next week. Week 2 Ahead: March 3-9, 2019   Discussion: Another sharp cold front across Argentina causing heavy rains that douse anomalous heat followed by more cool weather. Prior to the cold front anomalous heat reaches north across Eastern Brazil. Week 3 Ahead: March 10-16, 2019 Discussion: The climate pattern driving sharp cold fronts into Argentina (negative Antarctic oscillation) ends. Therefore surges of cool air into Argentina subside. Argentina is mostly temperate while East Brazil warmer than normal. Wet weather shifts to West Brazil and continues Uruguay to northeast Argentina. Week 4 Ahead: March 17-23, 2019 Discussion: Chance of rain across key growing areas after mid-March although forecast confidence is below average.
02/22/2019, 8:36 am EST

U.S. Week 2-4 Outlook

Highlight: In March, SLOWLY the big chill reverses warmer. Chart of the day: The extremes of February so far. Comment: An intense high-level polar vortex over the North Pole split and descended through the atmosphere to cause some of the coldest air in history into the Midwest earlier this month which has since then spread into the West. The super chill has hovered over expanding western snow cover and established snow cove rin the North-central U.S. Meanwhile to the east very warm weather has occurred especially over the Southeast. From the West U.S. to the Upper Midwest record snowfall has been observed while on average subtropical rains have affected the western Tennessee Valley. Week 2 Ahead: March 3-9, 2019 Comment: The deep cold biased toward the West and North-central U.S. in February shifts east to the Central/Midwest U.S. in early March. Lingering cold over more snow across the Interior West. Storms are mostly offshore in the East. Week 3 Ahead: March 10-16, 2019 Comment: The bold cold pattern remains anchored over the North-central U.S. but is losing intensity. The Southeast rewarms; the West Coast is warm. The Gulf States are stormy with heaviest rain on the Texas Coast. Week 4 Ahead: March 17-23, 2019 Comment: The big chill departs the pattern and Canada plus the East U.S. are somewhat warmer. Subtropical rains continue to affect the Gulf States.
02/22/2019, 8:27 am EST

U.S. Medium-range Outlook

Highlight: Medium-range is very cold; relief days 16-20. Charts of the Day: High wind zones over-the-weekend. Discussion: Highest wind for weekend event is where direct is westerly. Thundershowers can pull down high wind (at night) where wind is southerly. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid Feb. 27-Mar. 3, 2019 Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid Mar. 4-8, 2019 Discussion: The northern U.S. maintains a cold signature and the cold core is easing slowly eastward in the medium-range. The Southwest is warmer especially days 6-10. The Northeast Corridor is snowy and cold. Extended-range 16-20 Day Forecast Valid Mar. 9-13, 2019 Discussion: Signs of a warmer pattern developing. The U.S. Spring Outlook Discussion: Flood potential is high Central and East during spring due to excessive soil moisture. The spring forecast indicates mostly normal rainfall in the Central and East except above normal rainfall (and enhanced flood risk) in the Mid-South to northwest Gulf region. The Canada forecast is revised much cooler from warmer than normal in the previous forecast to temperate in the update. During spring the warmer than normal target is the West U.S. The forecast may not be warm enough on the East Coast.