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08/15/2018, 10:36 am EDT

Hot Spot: Late August in Europe

Estimating Upper Air Pattern in Europe Late August Fig. 1-3: Mega-clusters late August upper air forecast across Europe. Discussion: Estimating the upper air pattern across Europe in late August is based on the latest run of the mega-cluster model averaging various operational models to produce most to least likely scenarios. The most likely pattern in late August is a sprawling ridge pattern common this past summer centered on Western Russia and extending west across much of Europe (Fig. 1). The scenario described implies anomalous warmth and dryness for Central and East Europe. The second-most likely scenario is a stronger more amplified upper ridge pattern which could produce late summer anomalous heat and certainly dryness for Central and North Europe (Fig. 2). The least likely scenario is a warm/dry ridge pattern affecting Northwest Europe only (Fig. 3). The bottom line is the most likely scenario is anomalous warmth and dryness for much of Europe in late August into early September. The dry climate should lead to a new Rhine River minimum at Kaub (Fig. 4). Fig. 4: Rhine River levels the past 30 days at Kaub.  
08/15/2018, 7:01 am EDT

U.S. Medium-range Forecast

Highlight:  Overall, less warm. Chart of the day: Climate Impact Company 4-Week U.S. CDD Forecast Discussion: The Climate Impact Company population weight gas CDD 4-week forecast indicates that nationally the warmer than normal regime continues to mid-September. August 10-16 CDD is projected to verify at 82 which is 10 CDD above normal. The updated forecast trend is warmer next week but not as warm the following 2 weeks. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid August 20-24, 2018 Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid Aug. 25-29, 2018 Discussion: The 6-10 day forecast trends cooler in the northeast sector of the U.S. A cold front chops down the anomalous warm pattern during the period. Texas turns hotter. In the 11-15 day period the trend is cooler in central North America with warmth lingering West and Northeast. Much of the U.S. is temperate. Extended-range 16-20 Day Forecast Valid Aug. 30-Sep. 3, 2018 Discussion: Favoring a warm upper ridge pattern on each coast with susceptibility to temperate/wetter climate in the Central U.S. Medium-range % of normal rainfall forecast for the U.S. Using ECM ENS Discussion: The European ensemble maintains a wet pattern across the Mid-South U.S. to the Great Lakes region in the 6-10 day period. Dryness persists in the West. In the 11-15 day period dryness continues West while the remainder of the U.S. near to slightly wetter than normal.  
08/15/2018, 4:08 am EDT

Early AG Market Wire

Medium/extended-range comments all crop areas. United States: Medium-range trends warmer. Days 6-10 (Aug. 20-24): Gully-washer thunderstorms Corn Belt early period. Turning cooler mid-period Eastern Corn Belt. Much warmer late period. More thunderstorms North-Central late period. A warmer change! Days 11-15 (Aug. 25-29): Warmer trend indicated. Early to mid-period warmth with showers/thunderstorms Upper Midwest late period ahead of a cold front. Week 3 (Sep. 2-8): Potential cooler change Northwest U.S. while Great Plains is wet ahead of the upper trough. Week 4 (Sep. 9-15): Warm and dry pattern. Canada: Somewhat cooler late AUG/early SEP (low confidence). Days 6-10 (Aug. 20-24): Dry/temperate early period followed by a big warm-up. Late period showery cold front. Days 11-15 (Aug. 25-29): Potentially quite cool and showery. Week 3 (Sep. 2-8): Somewhat cooler; warmer very late period. Week 4 (Sep. 9-15): Warmer early period then showery. Cooler late period. Europe: For the most part, warm/dry ridge pattern holds. Days 6-10 (Aug. 20-24): Showery/cooler northern Europe early to mid-period. Brief rains northern U.K. early period. Elsewhere mostly dry and warm except showery Southeast Europe early period. Temperate/dry Eastern Europe late period. Upper ridge brings warmth and dryness U.K., France and Germany to Italy late period. Days 11-15 (Aug. 25-29): Could be showery well north and in Southwest Europe. Otherwise a dry and very warm pattern returns. Week 3 (Sep. 2-8): Below average forecast confidence. Most likely scenario is an upper trough bringing wet weather to Southeast Europe while elsewhere an upper ridge pattern supports more dryness and warmer-than-normal climate. Week 4 (Sep. 9-15): A broad warm/dry ridge pattern is expected. Western Russia/Black Sea: Occasional showers but mostly warm/dry. Days 6-10 (Aug. 20-24): Very warm and mostly dry, especially Black Sea region early-to-middle period. Late period cold front brings showers and cooler temperatures. Days 11-15 (Aug. 25-29): Early period showers in Black Sea region end. Turning warmer/drier again. Slight chance of more showers Black Sea region later period while dryness persists elsewhere. Week 3 (Sep. 2-8): Showery trough Southeast Europe while to the northeast the Black Sea region should be mostly dry with warmth and dryness for Western Russia. Week 4 (Sep. 9-15): Similar…mostly warm and dry while Southeast Europe is showery. China: Wet weather pattern last third of August. Days 6-10 (Aug. 20-24): Possible typhoon into Japan followed by another weaker system late period striking the same area. East/southeast China is very wet suppressing anomalous heat. Days 11-15 (Aug. 25-29): Showery northern China while southern half of China looks wet due to monsoon. Week 3 (Sep. 2-8): Eastern China remains wet; typhoon risk near coast to Japan. Week 4 (Sep. 9-15): Low confidence forecast indicates a drier/hotter high pressure ridge pattern emerging. India: Excessive rains West Coast, North and Northeast India. Days 6-10 (Aug. 20-24): Excessive rainfall along the upper West Coast, North-central and Northeast India. Drier than normal across southeast sections. Days 11-15 (Aug. 25-29): Same pattern features excessive rainfall West Coast and North/Northeast India. Week 3 (Sep. 2-8): North/Northeast rains continue. Week 4 (Sep. 9-15): Wetter pattern change for Southern India. Australia: Transitional pattern, mostly cool but dry later August. Days 6-10 (Aug. 20-24): Cool and dry early period Eastern Australia while Western Australia is very warm. A cold front brings showers to South-central Australia Coast mid-period but the front (and showers) weaken entering Southeast Australia late period. Warmer East late period; cooler West. Transitional pattern! Days 11-15 (Aug. 25-29): Cool much of continent to start the period. Another vigorous cold front brings more cool weather western areas mid-period sweeping into east late period. Not much rain associated with this front. Best chance of 1 in. of rain far southwest and southeast (coastal) Australia. Week 3 (Sep. 2-8): Low confidence forecast. Models favor cool/dry trough affecting the East. Week 4 (Sep. 9-15): Low confidence forecast. MJO projection favors anomalous warmth/dryness. South America: Southeast Brazil rains. Days 6-10 (Aug. 20-24): Two wet periods Paraguay to southeast Brazil to northeast Argentina. Several in. of rain in Southeast Brazil likely. Cool pattern trailing cold fronts Argentina. Days 11-15 (Aug. 25-29): Wet weather is likely Paraguay, north/northeast Argentina and across far southeastern Brazil. Week 3 (Sep. 2-8): Wetter and more widespread pattern emerges southeast Brazil. Week 4 (Sep. 9-15): Brazil is wet early period then drier late period.
08/14/2018, 4:26 am EDT

Weekly ENSO Diagnostics Report

Headline: El Nino Gas Tank Needs to Reload Discussion: Strong subsurface warming in the equatorial East Pacific during the past several months is fading ending El Nino onset risk over the next couple months (Fig. 1). A new Kelvin Wave moving east of the Dateline in August must reach the northwest coast of South America during northern hemisphere autumn to ignite El Nino onset, probably not until NOV/DEC 2018. El Nino is still possible but delayed. Fig. 1: Subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies. The Nino SSTA regions have cooled east-central/east equatorial Pacific in recent weeks (Fig. 2). Warmest NINO SSTA region clearly is near the Dateline indicating a weak El Nino Modoki signature right now (Fig. 3). Fig. 2: Nino SSTA regions during the past 12 weeks indicate the east-central/east Pacific (N34, N3 and N12) have cooled recently. Fig. 3: The difference between Nino3 and Nino4 SSTA zones identifies an El Nino Modoki index. The trend is toward El Nino Modoki in August.