Chart of the day: U.S. drought worsening during early autumn. Discussion: The U.S. drought worsened entering October including rainfall deficits reaching the 12-15 in. range in parts of Southeast Nebraska and Southeast Iowa. Drought restrengthened in Kansas, parts of the Southeast States, and the Carolinas. Only the southern half of Florida, southern New England, and the coastal Northwest turned wetter. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid October 10-16, 2023: Cooler East. Discussion: The upper trough in the East is triggered by a sharp -NAO pattern early in the period. Unseasonably cool air into the East into the middle of next week moderating late week. Forecast trend is wetter in the northern Great Plains and Louisiana but that rain is unlikely to raise low water on the Mississippi River. Substantial rain is forecast for the Northwest States. Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid October 17-23, 2023 (previous below): Wetter East. Discussion: Upper trough keeps the Central/East-central U.S. temperate (and possibly cooler than shown) while on the East Coast, the trough causes a wet regime. Hot and dry in the Southwest U.S. to the north of late season tropical cyclones impacting Western Mexico. Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid October 24-30, 2023: Cooler look for October continues. Discussion: The cooler look to the October outlook is maintained for the last week of the month as much of the U.S. is near normal except very warm in the Southwest U.S. A showery pattern near the U.S./Canada border with a tropically wet regime indicated in the Caribbean Sea.