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10/21/2018, 9:39 pm EDT

South America Week 2-4 Outlook

Highlight: Rainfall tends to back northwestward in the extended-range. Last week’s observed temperature anomalies/precipitation amount for October14-20, 2018 Discussion: Wet weather was observed across much of central to southeast Brazil last week. Interestingly, the warmest anomalies were very close to the wettest weather. Week 2 Ahead: October 28-November 3, 2018 Discussion: The convection phase of MJO is in the South American longitude and will help to activate above normal rainfall across parts of Southeast Brazil and northwest Argentina. Week 3 Ahead: November 4-10, 2018 Discussion: Turning somewhat warmer across Argentina although Northwest Argentina is showery. A drier look to Eastern Brazil is indicated. Week 4 Ahead: November 11-17, 2018 Discussion: Most of the wet weather across the continent is focused on northwest sections to Bolivia and northwest Argentina.
10/21/2018, 8:42 pm EDT

Week 2-4 Outlook: Australia

Highlight: Very dry through first third of November. Last week’s observed temperature anomalies/precipitation amount for October14-20, 2018 Discussion: Helpful rainfall was observed across Southeast Australia last week especially along the coastal Queensland/New South Wales border. Anomalous was also dominant across Southeast Australia. Week 2 Ahead: October 28-November 3, 2018 Comment: Minor precipitation is indicated by the ECMWF along the central East Coast otherwise dryness is dominant across the continent. Week 3 Ahead: November 4-10, 2018 Comment: Anomalous heat and dryness are dominant except across southeast portions. Week 4 Ahead: November 11-17, 2018 Comment: MJO forecast continues to indicate risk of eastern advance across the equatorial Indian Ocean during mid-November lending support to some showers/thundershowers.
10/21/2018, 7:35 pm EDT

Europe Week 2-4 Outlook

Highlight: Needed precipitation arrives late OCT/early NOV. Last week’s observed temperature anomalies/precipitation amount for October14-20, 2018 Discussion: WIDESPREAD dryness and anomalous warmth continued through the middle third of October across Europe. Week 2 Ahead: October 28-November 3, 2018 Discussion: Models confidently trend WETTER including heavy snows in the South-central Europe mountain areas. Somewhat cooler for Western Europe. Week 3 Ahead: November 4-10, 2018 Discussion: A cool/wet upper trough is present early-to-mid period over Western Europe weakening by late period. The warm/dry upper ridge returns to Western Russia/Eastern Europe. Week 4 Ahead: November 11-17, 2018 Comment: The dry/warm upper ridge rests over Western Russia and may extend westward into Europe. Wet weather is forecast due to presence of an upper trough across southern France.      
10/21/2018, 7:31 pm EDT

U.S. Week 2-4 Outlook

Highlight: Chilly East early November followed by a warmer reversal. Last week’s observed temperature anomalies/precipitation amount for October14-20, 2018 Discussion: A chilly week across the U.S. especially the Great Plains to Texas. In Texas heavy precipitation resulted in flash flooding. Wet weather extended to the Ohio Valley. The West and Florida were quite dry. Week 2 Ahead: October 28-November 3, 2018 Comment: A cool outbreak across the East-Central/East U.S. trailing a Northeast storm. Rain-to-snow then warm-to-colder northwest Plains to the Canadian Rockies. California turns warmer and the Gulf region turns drier. Week 3 Ahead: November 4-10, 2018 Comment: A warmer change in the East/Southeast and wet weather extends north from 4 Corners to Upper Midwest and could be heavy centered on Louisiana. The cold weather in Canada remains and extends southwest to the Rocky Mountains and includes some northern Great Plains snowfall. Week 4 Ahead: November 11-17, 2018 Comment: Wet weather but mild in the Southeast U.S. while the Northwest Coast is also wet.