08/18/2022, 9:32 am EDT

Daily AG Market Round-up: Latest NOAA long-lead forecasts.

Highlight: Latest NOAA/CPC long-lead climate forecasts. Fig. 1: NOAA/CPC U.S. seasonal drought outlook. Discussion: NOAA/CPC issues new long-lead climate forecasts including a new seasonal drought monitor (Fig. 1). The seasonal drought outlook indicates several important changes. First, the drought across Texas and Oklahoma is forecast to continue but weaken considerably over the next 1-3 months. Drought is eliminated in parts of the Mid-south States. The drought across the west/central Great Plains continues and also affects southern Iowa and parts of Minnesota. Drought development is likely in the western Dakotas. The Southwest U.S. drought continues to ease while California/Great Basin drought stays torrid. The September 2022 outlook favors late season heat across the southwest sector of the U.S. with warm/humid weather in New England (Fig. 2). Dry climate is dominant in the North-central U.S. while the Southeast trends wet (Fig. 3). The meteorological autumn forecast favors anomalous warmth across most of the U.S. (Fig. 4) with dryness dominating the West-central U.S. eastward to the Appalachian Spine. Only Florida and Washington have a wet risk for the autumn season (Fig. 5). The winter outlook favors warmth across the South and East U.S. with equal chances of below, above or normal in the Central U.S. (Fig. 6). The precipitation outlook indicates classic La Nina climate with dryness across California and the remainder of the Southern U.S. (Fig. 7). Stormy risk is centered on the Ohio Valley. Fig. 2-3: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability forecast for September 2022. Fig. 4-5: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability forecast for SEP/OCT/NOV 2022. Fig. 6-7: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability forecast for DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23.  
08/18/2022, 8:11 am EDT

AG Market Weather/Climate Hot Spot: Status of China and Europe drought.

Fig. 1-3: Daily soil moisture anomalies identify the China drought which worsens based on the ECM ENS 15-day temperature/precipitation anomalies. Discussion: Crop damage and electricity cutbacks are accelerating due to the China drought (Fig. 1) and continued hot and dry weather pattern (Fig. 2-3). Summer 2022 has featured limited rain across China causing rapid onset of drought which is accelerated by the mid-to-late summer hot weather pattern. The hot/dry climate was foreshadowed by extremely warm SSTA off the East Asia coastline. Recent rainfall has eased (slightly) the Western Europe drought. However, soil moisture conditions remain arid (Fig. 4). The outlook maintains anomalous warmth through the next 2 weeks, most notable in Western Russia (Fig. 5). The wet weather pattern shifts to Southeast Europe to close August (Fig. 6). At the moment, the new showery pattern affecting Europe is not benefitting Rhine River level forecasts (Fig. 7). Fig. 4-6: Daily soil moisture anomalies identify the Europe drought plus the 15-day ECM ENS temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast. Fig. 7: Rhine River levels remain in descent for late August.  
08/18/2022, 8:04 am EDT

U.S. Medium-range Forecast: Out-of-control Northwest heat. Northeast looks warmer. 

Chart of the day: Medium-range high impact weather. Discussion: NOAA/CPC high impact weather outlook for the 8-14-day period maintains western threats. The current Northwest to California heat wave continues. Drought acceleration is spawned Interior Northwest by the hot and dry weather and adds the northwest Great Plains. In the Southwest, a regenerating super wet monsoon brings more flooding. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid August 23-27, 2022 (24-hour change right) Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid August 28-September 1, 2022 (24-hour change right) Discussion: The Northwest heat is steadily relentless. Drought develops and strengthens. The extreme heat extends to California. The Northeast U.S. also is very warm due to a high-pressure ridge over southeastern Canada. The wet/cool pattern in the Southwest U.S. continues. %Normal Precipitation forecast for the Medium-range Discussion: ECM ENS maintains the wet forecast across Texas in the 6-10-day period and adds the Interior West while the Midwest trends drier. In the 11-15-day period, wet weather in Texas extends to the Ohio Valley and the Southwest is not as wet. Extended-range Days 16-20 Forecast September 2-6, 2022 Discussion: Extended-range forecasts will not budge on the Northwest heat while dryness continues across the North-central U.S. and a tropical cyclone threatens the East Coast.
08/18/2022, 5:23 am EDT

Early AG Market Weather/Climate Alert: Ag Resource Crop Tour So Far

Highlight: AG Resource Crop Tour finds mixed results in Illinois to Iowa. Fig. 1: NOAA daily soil moisture anomaly analysis. Discussion: The AG Resource Midwest U.S. Crop Tour marches on westward after finding better conditions to the east and worsening conditions to the west (although not as bad as expected). The findings are well-supported by soil moisture analysis (Fig. 1). Summer of 2022 has featured weather extremes for crop areas. Expected drought has generated in the Central Great Plains but “renegade” thunderstorms have made dry-to-drought issues patchy at best for the central U.S. Corn Belt while well to the east has been wet. The larger problem is heat which has accelerated dryness in areas where drought developed. Fig. 2: The August 2022 U.S. soil moisture change (so far). Fig. 3: Deep layer (10-200 CM) soil moisture deficits for August 2022. The August soil moisture change also supports Crop Tour findings as streaks of rain have benefited parts of Iowa and Illinois while central and southwest Iowa have not received much rain (Fig. 2). Soil conditions have worsened in Kansas, especially eastern sections and dryness in the spring wheat areas of the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies are a new concern. Entering late summer, deep layer soil moisture deficits which can foreshadow future drought, acceleration of current drought or flash drought if the climate stays dry have become vividly present from southeast Oklahoma to southeast Minnesota (Fig. 3). On its own, this is a scary look for late summer soil conditions. Weather forecasts for August into September are critical. The next 3 days feature another “renegade” wet weather event benefiting the northwest to central Corn Belt (Fig. 4). We say “renegade” due to the dynamic northwest flow aloft entraining moisture from this year’s prolific Southwest Monsoon which has caused streaks of rain that can be (and often are) excessive. ECM indicates wide aerial coverage of 0.50 to 2.00 in. of rain today through Saturday and more could occur given the precedent set by this year’s rainfall events in this area. Next week forecast models are mixed with ECM offering wet weather for North Dakota and parts of Minnesota (and dry elsewhere) while GFS is wetter for Iowa/Illinois and South Dakota to Minnesota. Figuring out what level of involvement the super wet Western U.S. Monsoon has on the Great Plains Crop Areas is difficult making forecast models unreliable beyond the short-term. To address the 6-10-day forecast we use the mega-cluster ensemble which is biased toward the ECM solution (Fig. 5). Note the limited forecast confidence (35%). The model indicates dryness across the Ohio Valley, a drier trend. The “caveat” forecast is drier. So…dryness is likely for the central and eastern Corn Belt for much of next week. Fig. 4-5: ECM 3-day rainfall forecast for the AG Belt and mega-cluster ensemble “most likely” rainfall anomaly forecast for the 6-10-day period. In the 11-15-day period, most forecast models agree on some sort of weakness in the upper air across the southern Great Plains. Consequently, the forecast remains wet in Texas and the Mid-south U.S. and that wet weather extends to the Ohio Valley (Fig. 6). Dryness is there but shifts westward. The 6-10/11-15-day forecasts illustrate the Climate Impact Company opinion of weather/climate on the U.S. Corn Belt for late summer. Occasionally threatening but just when dry concerns accelerate, rains appear. Once again, for the moment, extended-range forecasts turn dry again for the U.S. Corn Belt and North-central U.S. (Fig. 7). Fig. 6-7: Mega-cluster ensemble “most likely” 11-15-day rainfall anomaly forecast and the NCEP CFS V2 16-20-day percent of normal rainfall forecast. Summary: Late summer forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt are offering enough rain to prevent widening crop difficulties. However, as always, it’s a close call and we’re in “counting raindrops” mode heading into September. New ECM “weeklies” are issued later today providing re-assessment of the 2-4-week outlook. Also, NOAA issues new long-lead climate forecasts including a 90-day drought outlook. Once data is received, Climate Impact Company will issue analysis.