Discussion: The subsurface equatorial Pacific, particularly the Nino34 region where ENSO phase is calculated is warming dramatically and El Nino evolution is underway. A full-blown El Nino is likely in August. An El Nino climate is developing now. NOAA climatology for JUL/AUG/SEP U.S. rainfall favors a wet pattern in the Great Plains (Fig. 1) and lack of Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone activity. Globally, a quick-evolving El Nino climate (Fig. 2) supports dryness in India. Indonesia and Brazil. By DEC/JAN/FEB 2018-19 expect the El Nino climate to generate drought-reversing rains in the Southern U.S. while wet weather also dominates Argentina. Dry-to-drought climate affects Southeast Asia, Indonesia and Australia and Brazil.
Fig. 1: NOAA historical rainfall anomalies across the U.S. (top) given El Nino during JUL/AUG/SEP, the recent El Nino trend for this time of year (middle) and an average of historical and trend anomalies (bottom).
Fig. 2: NOAA general climate anomalies for an El Nino climate.