Weekly ENSO Diagnostics: El Nino Modoki is trying to develop.

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Discussion: The El Nino Modoki Index eclipses +1 and given the stark difference in the buoyant warming near the Dateline and near normal SSTA in the eastern equatorial Pacific El Nino Modoki appears to be developing. The evolution follows a weak El Nino present the past 4 months. Last week the Nino34 SSTA cooled sharply which caused the El Nino Modoki index to strenghthen.

Fig. 1: The El Nino Modoki Index gained weak Modoki character late last year but is now intensifying.

Fig. 2: The moderate warming in the central tropical Pacific represented by the Nino4 region is sharply warmer than Nino34/Nino3 in the east-central equatorial Pacific forcing a stronger El Nino Modoki character.

Fig. 3: An El Nino Modoki look to the ENSO System is emerging.