El Nino 2019 In Doubt

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The Nino SSTA regions are cooling. Upper ocean heat remains robust but is subsiding. NCEP ENSO forecast models indicate very weak El Nino ahead and neutral phase by summer. The popular NCEP CFS V2 model is too warm.

El Nino Strengthening in 2019 In Doubt

Discussion: El Nino 2019 is in jeopardy. The Nino SSTA regions are cooling as 2019 arrives (Fig. 1). Peak warmth occurred last November. Upper ocean heat to fuel El Nino remains robust but is declining from peak last October (Fig. 2). A combination of NCEP ENSO forecast models indicate weak El Nino in early 2019 weakening to neutral ENSO by summertime (Fig. 3). Note that the popular NCEP CFS V2 forecast appears much too warm. The issue has been inability for the atmosphere to react to the Pacific warming to force an El Nino climate.

Fig. 1: The 12-week Nino SSTA data indicate El Nino peak has passed.

Fig. 2: Upper ocean heat across the equatorial Pacific since last January measured on a monthly basis.

Fig. 3: NCEP forecast models of ENSO phase indicate weak El Nino fading to neutral phase in summertime.