Warmer Than Normal Western North Atlantic Causes Southeast Mass. Rainstorm

After The Storm, U.S. Pattern Change Ahead
01/03/2018, 5:31 pm EDT
Rapidly Accelerating Storm Intensity Lead To Hurricane Force Wind
01/04/2018, 5:03 pm EDT
Show all

Last night’s ECMWF (model) indicates the surface pressure for 8 AM EST is 959 MB which is very close to actual observations. The storm center is due east of Norfolk and due south of the eastern tip of Long Island.  The ECM deepens the low pressure to 953 MB in the Gulf of Maine late evening while the NAM is stronger near 947 MB.

Fig. 1: Current radar depiction of the Northeast U.S. storm depicts snow, sleet and rain location.

CURRENT radar indicate the veil of snow reaches central to northwest Virginia, most of Maryland, eastern Pennsylvania to the Mid-Atlantic coast and across eastern New York and all of New England except southeast Massachusetts where mild maritime influence yields low 40’s and moderate rain.

Heaviest snow is in New Jersey to Connecticut to east-central Massachusetts. Snow and sleet is mixing Long Island to Rhode Island to just south of Boston. Powdery quick accumulating snow has gathered over the Mid-Atlantic States.

Fig. 2: Sea surface temperature anomalies indicate a northeast fetch of wind north of today’s storm crosses warmer-than-normal water pushing rainfall across southeast New England. Once wind tilts north rain changes to snow. The warmth identified across the North Atlantic is historic in amplitude.

Maximum wind gusts along the coast of the developing Mid-Atlantic storm are generally in the 40-50 mph range except Nantucket where gusts to 58 mph have occurred. Along and just offshore wind gusts of 60+ mph are developing.

Fig. 3: Sea surface temperature anomalies indicate a northeast fetch of wind north of today’s storm crosses warmer-than-normal water pushing rainfall across southeast New England. Once wind tilts north rain changes to snow. The warmth identified across the North Atlantic is historic in amplitude.

The updated HRRR (model) snowfall forecast for the Northeast U.S. indicates near one foot across Long Island to central Connecticut and central/northeast Massachusetts including Boston. More than one foot buries New Hampshire with 1-2 feet jackpot amounts affecting Maine.

Fig. 4: Most current 18-hour HRRR model snowfall amount forecast indicates additional maximum amount occurs over Long Island to central/northeast Massachusetts and certainly across Maine.