Stalled MJO in November Responsible for Late Season Tropical Cyclones Senyar and Ditwah Flooding Western Indonesia/Southern India
11/30/2025, 9:34 am EST
Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
North America
Issued: Monday, December 1, 2025
Highlight: ECM stays cold Northern U.S. although less intense; AI forecasts are cold to very cold just-after mid-month.
Charts of the day: The cold (and very cold) week-3 AI forecasts.
Discussion: All AI forecasts for week-3 ahead are cold to very cold across most of the eastern half of the U.S. The forecasts are consistent and much colder than operational models.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid December 7-14, 2025: Colder East/warmer West trend.
Discussion: The forecast trend is colder Northeast and East while the Northwest is warmer. Western Canada to the northwest Great Plains is likely snowy, therefore, the warm forecast into Southwest Canada may be overstated. The storm track is roped across Florida.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid December 14-21, 2025: Snowy pattern Southern Canada, could be colder than indicated. South trends warmer.
Discussion: The outlook is not as cold as previously indicated across the northern states and warmer for the West/Southwest U.S. The forecast trend is wetter across Mexico and Florida. Canada is snowy, once again, the outlook could be colder in that zone (including the Northern U.S.).
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid December 21-28, 2025: Northern chill; Texas is warm.
Discussion: ECM shifts colder across Western Canada to the Northern U.S. inspired by additional snow. The warm pattern is focused on Texas.