Saturday Record Warmth in the East

Historic January -PNA Pattern
01/08/2020, 11:18 am EST
U.S. Snow and Cold Will Try to Return!
01/12/2020, 2:26 pm EST
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Highlight: South and East hang onto the warm pattern.

Chart of the day: Maximum temperature departure from normal on Saturday.

Discussion: Many record warm days are ahead in the East. One of the warmest is this Saturday as afternoon temperature departures from normal are in the +25F to +35F range which would produce near 80 in Charleston, WV, 65 as far north as Worcester, MA and 55 in Caribou, ME while the Southeast observes widespread 70’s to low 80’s.

Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid January 14-18, 2020

Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid January 19-23, 2020

Discussion: The intense –PNA pattern continues to generate arctic air across Western Canada which reaches the North-central U.S. Some of the cold shifts into the West U.S. and snowfall helps that process. The cold is also expansive into Eastern Canada by days 11-15. South of the cold regime temperatures are very warm and records are possible in the East.

Extended-range 16-20 Day Forecast Valid January 24-28, 2020

Discussion: Forecast trend is in the warmer direction (except in the Northwest).

GFS ENS Day 6-10/Day 11-15 Percent of Normal Precipitation Forecast

Discussion: The GFS ENS identifies lingering heavy rain in the Southeast U.S. while the Interior West is snowy in the 6-10 day period. The 11-15 day forecast is made with low confidence. The GFS ENS indicates a widespread stormy pattern. However, the ECM ENS is somewhat drier.