Historic Texas Heating Demand Spike Last Week!

Forecasting Extremes Is Not Easy To Do
02/17/2021, 4:31 pm EST
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Highlight: Last Week’s HDD Results And The 4-Week Outlook.

Discussion: Last week the heating demand in the Texas region compared to the 30-year normal was 279% of normal (Fig. 1). The Texas (heating) demand compared to normal lead all regions of the U.S. with the Midwest/North-central U.S. and Mid-south U.S. a distant 2nd and 3rd. The U.S. gas population weight HDD was 279 compared to the 30-year normal of 195. The week of Feb. 12-18 was by far the coldest for the winter 2020-21 season (Fig. 2). The 4-week outlook indicates the colder-than-normal national regime ends after this week (Fig. 3). Regionally, the warm-up ahead includes most areas east of the Continental Divide (Fig. 4).

Fig. 1: NOAA percent of 30-year normal HDD for Feb. 12-18, 2021.

Fig. 2: The NOAA weekly gas population weight HDD for each week of meteorological winter (so far).

Fig. 3: The Climate Impact Company U.S. gas population weight HDD anomaly 4-week forecast and (NOAA) observations.

Fig. 4: The Climate Impact Company 4-week HDD anomaly forecast for regions of the U.S.