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After a cold start to the cold season when national gas population weight HDD were somewhat higher than the 30-year normal in November a warm December followed. February and March turn colder than normal to finish the cold season.

Updating FEB/MAR Gas Population Weight HDD Forecast

Discussion: The “feast or famine” thermal pattern across the U.S. is in full view for February so far with record warm in the Southeast compared to record cold in the North-Central States. Combined with eastward spread of western chill for the rest of February the U.S. FEB-19 HDD forecast is adjusted colder to 825 which is colder than both the 10-year and 30-year normal (Fig. 1). Due to expanding FEB-19 snow cover the March forecast trends colder across the northern states yielding a colder HDD forecast at 641 which is close to the 30-year normal.

Fig. 1: The CIC population weight gas HDD forecast for NOV-18 to MAR-19 for the U.S. (NOV-DEC are verified values).

Regional observations/forecasts are interesting (Fig. 2-4). November started cold North-Central and Mid-Atlantic States while the West was warm. Each region was warm in December. January was warmer than normal in each region although less extreme than December. The February chill is impressive but delayed into the Mid-Atlantic.

 

Fig. 2: The CIC population weight gas HDD forecast for NOV-18 to MAR-19 for the North-Central U.S. (NOV-DEC are verified values).

Fig. 3: The CIC population weight gas HDD forecast for NOV-18 to MAR-19 for the Mid-Atlantic U.S. (NOV-DEC are verified values).

Fig. 4: The CIC population weight gas HDD forecast for NOV-18 to MAR-19 for the U.S. West Coast (NOV-DEC are verified values).