North Atlantic Tropics Week 2-5 Outlook Indicates August 1st Becomes Very Active; North Atlantic Cooled Recently

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07/07/2024, 8:23 am EDT
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07/13/2024, 6:06 am EDT
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Headline: Tropical cyclone ALERT areas are indicated ALTHOUGH the very warm ocean surface is in a cooler trend.

Charts of the day: North Atlantic SSTA and 30-day trend.

Discussion: The North Atlantic basin remains very warm with a basin average of +0.82C. Contributing to the warmth is an east-shifting marine heat wave across the subtropics and a new marine heat wave south of the Canadian Maritimes. During the past 30 days, cooler changes are apparent in the Gulf and eastern subtropical North Atlantic.

Week-2 Valid July 14-20, 2024: Potential issue north of the Caribbean Islands.

Discussion: The mid-July percent of normal rainfall forecast indicates a tropical cyclone ALERT just north of the Northern Caribbean Islands likely for later in the time-period.

Week 3 Valid July 21-27, 2024: Maintaining a marginal tropical cyclone threat in the northeast Gulf of Mexico.

Discussion: Late July brings a marginal tropical cyclone ALERT in the northeast Gulf of Mexico.

Week 4 Valid July 28-August 3, 2024: Two alert areas.

Discussion: ECM remains interested in generating tropical cyclone activity in the deep tropics including the Caribbean Sea into early August.

Week 5 Valid August 4-10, 2024: Two alert areas.

  

Discussion: ECM indicates an increasing risk of tropical cyclone generation in the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.