Next Cold Wave Not as Cold as January Cold Wave

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Another arctic air mass looms for the U.S. during early-to-middle February. Forecast confidence is below average. However, this arctic outbreak is projected to be less intense and cover less area than the early January outbreak.

Cold weather is projected to return to the U.S. in February. However, the severity of the cold will not be as impressive as the early January outbreak. The U.S. (NOAA) gas home heating population weight HDD value for the first week in January was 288, 62 above the 30-year normal. Projected national HDD for Feb. 9-15 is 225, about 22 HDD above normal. Slightly lower values are projected for Feb. 10-16. The forecasts could trend colder as confidence is below average. The primary issue is trajectory of arctic air, aerial coverage of arctic air and duration of extreme cold plus whether the extreme cold can work into the NE Corridor, particularly the Mid-Atlantic region.