Warm Blob in Southeast Part of North Pacific = Hot Summer/Drought Risk for Southwest U.S.

Streak of Cool Weeks About To End
04/22/2018, 3:37 pm EDT
Tracking The Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly “Warm Blobs”
04/30/2018, 10:25 am EDT
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Of concern is a non-ENSO event in the global SSTA structure identifying a persistent warm "blob" southwest of California linked to Southwest drought and possibly extreme heat for upcoming summer.


Tracking the global warm/cool blobs…

  • The 2017-18 warm blob (area of warmer than normal ocean surface) in the southeast North Pacific.
  • Reflection on the atmosphere?
  • Upper ridge pattern is observed in past 6 months across Southwest U.S. analysis (below).
  • Has caused Southwest U.S. drought.
  • Concern? Ridge amplifies causing extreme heat Southwest U.S. by early summer.
  • If so, where does the heat migrate as mid-to-late summer arrives?

Pictured: The 500 MB anomalies the past 6 months indicate an upper ridge pattern over the Southwest U.S. correlated with the warm SSTA pattern in the southeast North Pacific.