Super Cold Midwest to Northeast Mid-to-late Next Week

South America Climate Pattern Not Caused by El Nino
01/22/2019, 12:58 pm EDT
+AAM Causes High Wind Events
01/25/2019, 11:38 am EDT
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Highlight:  Hostile polar vortex biting cold ahead.

Colder day 11-15 forecast is supported by strong -10.

Siberian Express pattern is choppy but generally intact.

Will issue new week 2-4 forecast/HDD outlook shortly.

Midday 12Z GFS…

  • Days 6-10: Not much change.
  • Days 11-15: Colder as GFS reloads more arctic air. Southwest is warm, however.
DatesHDD forecast12-hr change24 hours agoNOAA Nml
Jan 18-24225.3-0.5225.3224
Jan 25-31264.4+8.9248.3220
Feb 1-7228.5+19.8234.0214

 Table 1: CWG tabulates the 12Z GFS OP gas population weight HDD forecast into early February

Cold spikes ahead…

  • Swath of -5 to -25 Midwest/Upper Midwest next 3 mornings.
  • Zero line during afternoon near Minneapolis.
  • Next Wednesday morning -30 to -45 Upper Midwest; zero line to southern Ohio Valley across Pennsylvania (Fig. 1).
  • Next Thursday morning zero line to Tennessee/Alabama state line (Fig. 2).
  • Zero line just west of I-95 next Thursday morning.

Maps of the day…

Fig. 1: 12Z GFS OP low temperature forecast morning of Jan. 30, 2019.

Fig. 2: 12Z GFS OP low temperature forecast morning of Jan. 31, 2019.