A collection of dynamic and statistical models forecasting ENSO phase through the remainder of 2018 is collected by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society. The majority of models indicate La Nina should end during northern hemisphere spring. Dynamic models – on average – forecast El Nino by August (red) while statistical models favor persistent neutral ENSO in 2018 (light green). Overall, the trend is toward El Nino for later this year. Generally, ENSO is weak in 2018 meaning other aspects of climate will take the lead producing weather regimes for 2018.
Fig. 1: IRI collection of ENSO phase forecast models for 2018.