Dramatic climate event brewing for mid-February as super intense Madden Julian oscillation forms in West-central Pacific.
Discussion: The GFS ENS indicates a robust Madden Julian oscillation phase_6 developing in 11-14 days (Fig. 1). The intensity of this event will exceed an intense MJO phase_5/phase_6 of 3 weeks ago. Indicated is EXPLOSIVE development of thunderstorms across the tropical West Pacific with potential profound influence on both subtropical and mid-latitude climate.
Fig. 1: The GFS ENS indicates a robust Madden Julian oscillation phase_6 developing in 11-14 days.
Historically, MJO phase_6 causes excessive precipitation across the East-central U.S. and a cold West/very warm East regime during February (Fig. 2-3). Expect the East to stay warm while the West is cold but possibly not as cold as the GFS is indicating. Meanwhile in the tropics the exceptionally warm waters of the west-central/central tropical Pacific Ocean fuel this MJO episode. Expect excessive rainfall in the West Pacific tropics and some of that excessive rainfall will flood the East Australia fire zones (Fig. 4) in the 8-14 day period. Intense dryness develops across India to tropical East Africa.
Fig. 2-3: The MJO phase_6 forecast for the 11-15 day period historically favors very warm weather in the East and heavy precipitation East-central U.S. during February.
Fig. 4: The MJO phase_6 forecast favors excessive rainfall in the west/central tropical Pacific extending to Eastern Australia.