Madden Julian Oscillation Presence Enhances Excessive Rainfall for India

North Atlantic Basin Starting to Warm
07/28/2022, 7:55 am EDT
Forecast Models Struggling with Central/East Hot/Dry Weather Forecasts.
08/01/2022, 12:50 pm EDT
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Highlight: MJO presence in the Indian Ocean leads to Extreme Rain in India.

Fig. 1: Madden Julian oscillation 15-day forecast by all models indicates presence of phase_2/phase_3 (Indian Ocean) presence.

Discussion: The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) gains presence in the Indian Ocean tropics and is likely to last at least 2 weeks based on the majority of operational model forecasts (Fig. 1). The immediate climate impact of MJO P2/P3 is excessive rainfall forecasts (>10 in.) across parts of India over the next 2 weeks (Fig. 2). The rainfall forecasts indicate major flooding from persistent tropical downpours. Some of the wet climate pattern extends to northeastern Africa and possibly parts of Australia. While convective currents inspire heavy thunderstorms and flooding in India, northeast Africa and possibly Australia a massive area of subsidence is present during this time in the central tropical Pacific Ocean. This pattern promotes regenerating La Nina for the first half of August as the subsidence pattern near the Dateline causes trade winds to increase to up-well cooler subsurface waters.

Fig. 2: MJO wet influence on India climate the next two weeks as depicted by the GFS model.