IRI Depiction of ENSO Forecast Models Pointed Toward El Nino

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Each third Thursday of the month the International Research Institute for Climate and Society collects all ENSO phase forecast models extending out to 9 months. The depiction of model forecasts is in 2 sets: Dynamic and Statistical models. Each set reveal a trend toward weak El Nino later in 2018. The statistical (analog) models are slightly more supportive than the dynamic models of El Nino. The onset of a potential El Nino event could be as early as late northern hemisphere summer and is likely to extend through next winter. A strong El Nino is unlikely.