After a near normal to warmer than normal winter across Europe a much colder regime featuring heavy snows emerges in the 6-10 day period likely lasting 2-3 weeks. The pattern is identified by an intense negative phase of the North Atlantic oscillation. The ECMWF Ensemble 15-day snowfall forecast yields heavy snows to almost to the Mediterranean Coast. Parts of Eastern Europe plunge to below zero by early next week. The -NAO is slow to affect the Northeast U.S. due to lack of snow cover (prevent old) and eastern displacement of the eventual upper trough pattern (preventing snow). However, Europe will be hit hard!
Fig. 1: Intense –NAO pattern spawns a historic cold and snowy pattern across Europe/Western Russia.
Fig. 2: The ECMWF 6-10 day forecast indicates brutally cold arctic air charging into Europe from Russia.
Fig. 3: The ECMWF ENS 15-day snowfall forecast indicates heavy snows south to the Mediterranean Coast.