ECMWF “Monthlies” Indicate Australian Drought Worsens During Summer

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Discussion: The just-released ECMWF “monthlies” forecast model indicates anomalous heat and dryness across most of Australia during each of the meteorological summer months (Fig. 1-6). The forecast is consistent with the historical relationship which features drier-than-normal climate affecting Australia during summer when the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole is present and El Nino emerges. Climate Impact Company has made a call on El Nino 2018-19 as biased more toward the Dateline versus northwest coast of South America which also has a dry historical relationship with Australia. The dry/hot forecast follows already established drought across much of the continent. Implied is a dangerous drought scenario for meteorological summer affecting agriculture, increasing fire risk and affecting water supply.

Fig. 1-2: ECMWF “monthlies” model temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for Australia in December 2018.

Fig. 3-4: ECMWF “monthlies” model temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for Australia in January 2019.

Fig. 5-6: ECMWF “monthlies” model temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for Australia in February 2019.