Australian Drought Likely To Worsen Due to El Nino Modoki
Discussion: July 2018 soil moisture conditions across Australia indicate widening severe drought with many locations observing historic drought (Fig. 1). El Nino is forecast to develop later in 2018 which will worsen drought conditions especially in eastern sections. El Nino Modoki (when warm SSTA is biased toward the Dateline) is possible. El Nino Modoki analog years are 1994, 2002 and 2009 and correlate to dry climate in eastern Australia for the last third of 2018 (Fig. 2).
Fig. 1: Current soil moisture analysis across Australia.
Fig. 2: An El Nino Modoki is possible later in 2018. The most recent El Nino Modoki events correlate to dry climate across eastern Australia for the last third of the year.