Historic Positive Phase Indian Ocean Dipole Collapses

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Intense Positive Phase Indian Ocean Dipole Collapses

Fig. 1: The intense positive phase Indian Ocean Dipole of 2019 is weakening and forecast by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to become neutral in early 2020.

Fig. 2: The SSTA pattern across the tropical Indian Ocean has become equally warm in both the west and east portion. The lack of contrast signals the end of the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole.

Fig. 3: The much warmer change during the past 30 days of SSTA off the northwest coast of Australia signals the end of the +IOD pattern.

Fig. 4: A strong +IOD pattern during OCT/NOV shifting to neutral phase the following JAN/FEB/MAR is expected to occur into early 2020. This +IOD to neutral IOD transition occurred in 1995, 2003, 2007, 2012, 2016 and 2019. The analog precipitation regime indicates beneficial rainfall occurs driven by tropical cyclones moving inland otherwise the climate pattern can still be dry.