Last Week’s Global Climate Observations/This Week’s Highlights

Atmospheric Angular Momentum Spike Ahead
01/15/2019, 9:30 am EDT
South America Climate Pattern Not Caused by El Nino
01/22/2019, 12:58 pm EDT
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Last week’s climate
High Impact Weather This Week

United States

Last week featured a warmer-than-normal national pattern except colder than normal in parts of New England. The strongest influence on climate was a vigorous Pacific storm track (and upper airflow) wringing out excessive rain and mountain snow on California while the Pacific air warmed while drying crossing the Continental Divide. Heavy precipitation was observed in the Tennessee Valley. This week super cold in the Northeast today followed by a warm-up with rain (East) midweek and another arctic outbreak Midwest Friday.

Fig. 1-2: Last week’s temperature anomalies and precipitation amount across the United States.

South America

The early summer pattern returned last week (excessive rain in Argentina while southwest Brazil is dry) including excessive heat on the Mato Grosso Do Sul/Sao Paulo border. The subtropical ridge was strong enough extending west and northwest from a large pool of warm SSTA southeast of Brazil to return the dry and hot climate to Brazil. This week more rain, possibly excessive is forecast across northeast Argentina. Showers bring above normal rainfall to Sao Paulo. However, inland southeastern Brazil to southwest Brazil is forecast drier than normal.

Fig. 3-4: Last week’s temperature anomalies and precipitation amount across central and northern South America.

Europe

Maritime influence off the North Atlantic brought a milder than normal climate to Europe last week. Precipitation amount was generally below to well below normal. Precipitation was above normal in the South-central Mountains and river levels in central Europe rebounded early last week. This week a vigorous Southern Europe storm track brings heavy precipitation to Italy and Southeast Europe. North of the storm track a sprawling colder pattern change is forecast by all models.

Fig. 5-6: Last week’s temperature anomalies and precipitation amount across Europe.

Western Russia

Last week was warmer than normal and there was some snowmelt in Southwest Russia/Black Sea region. This week the storm track stretches across Ukraine and features heavy snows. North of the storm track Western Russia turns very cold. South of the storm track the Black Sea region is mild.

Fig. 7-8: Last week’s temperature anomalies and precipitation amount across Western Russia and the Black Sea region.
Australia

Searing heat affected South Australia to New South Wales with worsening drought was observed. Far northern Australia was wet due to an activated wet monsoon. This week dangerous heat continues as all of Australia is hotter than normal while South Australia to New South Wales observes life threatening heat. The north coast is susceptible to cooling tropical rainfall.

Fig. 9-10: Last week’s temperature anomalies and precipitation amount across Australia.

China

Borderline mild temperatures were observed last week across China. To the north a warm regime dominated Northeast Asia/Siberia as arctic air was absent. Interior Southeast China observed some rainfall last week. This week a drier and milder climate dominates Eastern Asia.

Fig. 11-12: Last week’s temperature anomalies and precipitation amount across China.

South Africa

The South African drought continued to worsen last week. This week all models agree on dryness for South Africa continuing.

Fig. 13-14: Last week’s temperature anomalies and precipitation amount across South Africa.