February Arctic Outbreak Less Impact on U.S. Vs. January Outbreak

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The upcoming cold outbreak in February has more limited aerial coverage to major U.S. heating markets compared to the early January arctic outbreak.

The updated 4-week forecast indicates a colder adjustment based on marginally colder air in the East for Feb. 2-9 (Fig. 1). The forecast for mid-to-late month is colder than normal nationally (barely) but eased back slightly.

The weekly HDD anomaly observations so far this meteorological winter indicate early January was certainly the cold peak with upcoming peak cold nowhere near the early January intensity (Fig. 2).

Regionally, the lack of widespread aerial coverage of arctic cold is revealed in the 4-week forecast (Fig. 3). Whereas the early January event affected most of the U.S. east of the Continental Divide the February cold outbreak certainly impacts the Midwest U.S. but less dramatically other regions. Note that New England gains cold mid-February and is likely to maintain that cold to later month.

Fig. 1: The 4-week observations and 4 week forecast compared to previous forecast of gas home heating population weight HDD anomalies forecast.

Fig. 2: HDD anomalies observed so far this meteorological winter on a weekly basis plus the 4 week projection.

Fig. 3: The gas home heating population weight HDD anomaly forecast by region for the next 4 weeks.