Streak of Cool Weeks About To End

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Stratospheric warming triggered the coldest air mass of this past winter in late FEB in Russia. Gradually that cold backed into Europe. A blocking pattern followed and lastly the U.S. went cold with expanding late season snow cover sustaining the cold weekly HDD count. The cold eases off into May.

Breaking The String of Consecutive Weeks of Above Normal Weekly HDD for the U.S.

Discussion: While most weeks of meteorological winter registered warmer-than-normal gas home heating population weight HDD values Mach to mid-April was colder than normal for 6 consecutive weeks (Fig. 1). The 4-week forecast indicates a more temperate U.S. climate as the cold streak ends. Too early for CDD forecasts to impact prices although the Climate Impact 4-week observation/4-week forecast begins and indicates a warmer change since late last week (Fig. 2).

Fig. 1: The last 9 weeks observed of U.S. gas home heating population weight HDD anomalies plus the 4-week forecast.

Fig. 2: 4-week observed and 4-week forecast of U.S. gas population weight CDD.