Warm Blob in Southeast Part of North Pacific = Hot Summer/Drought Risk for Southwest U.S.04/24/2018, 3:05 pm EST
A Look at Global Climate April 2018: U.S. Cold & Drenching India Rains05/06/2018, 10:57 am EST
Likely influences of the regional “warm blobs” across the global oceans. The warm regional SSTA gain importance as a climate predictor given neutral ENSO.
- The most vigorous “warm blob” is intensifying off the southeast Brazil/northeast Argentina coast. The warm SSTA zone supports increased risk of anomalous warmth into the winter season for eastern South America. Given the cool SSTA west of South America there is likely presence of a persistent upper trough on the West Coast of South America into the winter season. This set-up will produce drought ending rains in Argentina.
- The Mediterranean Sea is much warmer than normal due to the recent persistent very warm climate across Europe. Additional warm events are indicated. Also, a buoyant moisture supply to cause possible excessive southern Europe rains is emerging.
- Warming east of Asia will increase the risk of anomalous heat in China (and Japan) as summer approaches.
- The warm blob off the southwest coast of the U.S./Baja California is weakening. This feature is SLIGHLY less likely to support a searing hot ridge pattern to start the summer season.
- The warm blob in the western North Atlantic east of New England is broadly evident and beginning to strengthen. This feature indicates increased risk of a warm ridge over the Northeast U.S. during summer.