ENSO Outlook: La Nina Ends, El Nino Risk Later 2018

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La Nina should end by March followed by neutral ENSO for awhile with risk of El Nino returning later in 2018. No major ENSO events are indicated through the next 1 year.

Highlight: La Nina ends followed by neutral ENSO for quarter 2 of 2018

El Nino is possible for later this year

Summary: The Climate Impact Company Nino34 SSTA analog forecast to determine ENSO phase for the next 1 year based on historical precedent of the past year averages neutral ENSO for northern hemisphere spring and early summer 2018 transitioning to weak El Nino later this summer lasting through the end of the year. The current weak La Nina episode should dissipate in March. The outlook is confident regarding an ending of La Nina in the short-term and reasonably certain neutral ENSO follows and lasts into northern hemisphere summer. The outlook varies between neutral ENSO and El Nino for later summer to the end of 2018.