Climate Signals Want to Warm North America but Snow Cover Prevents

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Climate Implications on North America next 2 weeks

Discussion: Overnight climate signal forecasts issued by NCDC/PSD generally indicate a warming atmosphere especially across Canada (+WPO/+EPO) the next 2 weeks. Support for cold and stormy in the Northwest (-PNA) ends next week shifting to the Northeast (-NAO). Snow cover (Fig. 1) is over-ruling climate signals by causing a cold bias to the U.S. climate pattern and that bias increases due to more heavy snowfall forecast by the ECMWF ENS (Fig. 2). The snow cover slows the warming influence on the atmosphere forecast by climate signals.

Fig. 1: Current snow cover is above normal across the northern U.S.

Fig. 2: The ECMWF 15-day snowfall forecast.