70% Chance of Developing Northern (Real) Winter in 15 Days

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Highlight: 70% Chance of Developing Northern (Real) Winter in 15 Days

Fig. 1: The day-15 mega-cluster ensemble projected “most likely” upper air pattern made with 70% forecast confidence (which is excessive for 15 days).

Discussion: A long-lasting negative phase of the arctic oscillation (-AO) and North Atlantic oscillation (-NAO) will eventually produce a significant central North America upper trough and the potential for cross-polar arctic air flow from Siberia to set-up “real” winter for the northern U.S.

Fig. 2: NOAA/NWS weather watch, warning and advisories in effect this morning.

Snow events: A southern Appalachians snowstorm today will extend across western North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Snowfall amount of 3-6 in. from eastern Tennessee to west-central North Carolina are likely. High spots of 6-8 in. are possible not far to the west of Raleigh, NC. A Winter Storm Watch is posted for northwest Texas. Snow develops tomorrow night and lasts until early Monday morning. Snowfall amount forecasts are in the 3-10 in. range for this event with snow reaching Dallas to Shreveport.

Mid-to-late next week: Forecast models are coming off the potential snowstorm for the East Coast previously indicated although a moderate snow is still possible in Virginia midweek. Next week’s primary weather event into the East is a sharp THU/FRI cold front bringing a large area of snow showers/snow squalls and following windy/cold weather.

U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast: Models are all over the place trying to resolve a more threatening and colder upper air pattern emerging mid-month versus the relentless warm persistence. Consensus of forecast models is warmer for the current week and next week from 24 hours ago (Fig. 3). The HDD forecasts reveal the reality (and reluctancy) of models to push colder weather and the cold potential ahead is just that…POTENTIAL.

Fig. 3: Gas population weight HDD forecast through Jan. 22-28.