Australia Drought update: April Australia soil moisture analysis identifies the Southeast and Southwest Australia Crop Areas firmly in drought (Fig. 1). Previously parched Northeast Australia has reversed much wetter. The IOD forecast remains transition to negative phase during wintertime (Fig. 2) which should bring some beneficial rains to Southern Australia. However, we await the development of this regime. The last –IOD pattern during winter was in 2016 when eastern Australia observed rainfall amounts several inches above normal for the 90-day period (Fig. 3). Today’s operational models indicate Southwest and Southeast Australia are dry the next 15 days.
Fig. 1: Bureau of Meteorology/Australia soul moisture anomaly analysis for April 2018.
Fig. 2: Bureau of Meteorology/Australia forecasts negative Indian Ocean Dipole for winter in Australia.
Fig. 3: The last wintertime –IOD pattern was in 2016 when Eastern Australia observed a wetter than normal regime.