Soil moisture trend in June (so far) is drier in the Missouri Valley to eastern Texas and Louisiana/Arkansas. The northern Great Plains dry zone is less intense in early June. The “ring of fire” thunderstorm track has moistened soils from northern Nebraska to the northern Corn Belt and eastward to historically wet Mid-Atlantic States. Will this soil moisture observation signature and trend change heading toward July 1?
In the short-term (next 5+ days) the dry zone in eastern Kansas to northern Missouri is the target of hot and dry weather therefore these (dry) soil conditions worsen. The dryness (and heat) affects the Corn Belt according to the ECMWF model. NOAA/NWS peaks Springfield, IL heat at 95 on Sunday. Topeka, KS is close to 100 into the weekend.
Things change early next week. A weak cold front settles slowly into this hot/dry zone and entrains moisture from a tropical wave which brings a lot of rain to Texas late weekend/early next week. Gully-washer thunderstorms affect the central Great Plains to the Corn Belt next MON night and TUE/WED.
The showery pattern may hang on in the 8-14/11-15 day period suppressing heat risk. The Great Plains is in an alternating very hot/dry period flip to heavy rain period volatility. Climate Impact Company is forecasting the dry/hot scenario to become more dominant in July.