A Comparison Between GFS and ECM in 6-10 Day U.S. Rainfall Forecasts

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Highlight: U.S., Europe and Southwest Russia Dry Concerns.

Fig. 1-4: U.S. and Europe day 6-10 model forecast bias comparing GFS and ECM. ECM has a dry bias in the Great Plains to the Southeast U.S. and central/east Europe into Western Russia. GFS bias is wetter in Texas and southern Europe, generally OK in the Midwest and not as dry as ECM across Eastern Europe.

Fig. 5-6: U.S. “Ag Belt” GFS versus ECM rainfall forecast bias for days 6-10. Both models are too dry from Wisconsin/Iowa to Missouri while ECM is much too dry in the Southeast U.S. The GFS is much too wet in the southern Plains.

Fig. 7-8: Current U.S. soil moisture anomalies (left) and the June soil moisture change (so far). Parts of the Great Plains are drying out quickly. Note the wetter change in eastern Iowa (and the dry bias by GFS and ECM for that location).