Dangerous Drought Scenario Argentina

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Last week identified the rainfall character of recent rainfall patterns across northern Argentina with confined areas receiving excessive rainfall while nearby no rain at all was observed. The next 15 days indicate another type of heavy rain/no rain character in the rainfall pattern developing. North and northeast Argentina are very dry through the first half of February while across Brazil excessive rainfall is expected. The pattern is caused by an unusual (for summer) upper trough off the east coast of Brazil extending into Brazil and focusing daily convection while Argentina is on the subsidence side of this event.

Last week precipitation amount varied widely in northern Argentina.