Global Soil Moisture Trend Into March 2018

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Summary: A quick look at global soil moisture anomalies, 90-day trend and 90-day forecast is provided by Climate Impact Company. Highlights include developing/expanding dryness in Texas to the south and central Great Plains for quarter 2 of 2018. For the same period a dramatically drier climate is forecast for northeast Argentina to southeast Brazil. Southwest India to central China turns drier. Ukraine is likely to trend drier the next 3 months. Please see full report/forecast within Climate Impact website.

Observation discussion: Departing February leaves several drought areas in both hemispheres. In North America drought is established in the Southwest U.S. and western to south-central Canada. Western Canada is snow covered and snow melt is likely delayed due to a cold early spring pattern. However, dryness increasing (forest) fire risk is likely in western Canada with drier than normal soils in south-central Canada also likely. The Southwest drought is firmly in-place and monitored for possible expansion.

In South America the Brazilian dryness has eroded due to late summer rains while a flash-drought has emerged in northeast Argentina

Across Europe a needed wetter trend thanks to late season snows has emerged in west-southwest sections while Central Europe to Northwest Russia maintain wet soils. A wetter trend is indicated south and southeast of the Black Sea region

West-Central Russia trends drier! This zone may be the strongest drought signature entering northern hemisphere spring. Similarly, a very dry zone is to the south centered on Iran and Iraq where severe drought is occurring.

Northeast India is dry and trending drier while central/southwest India maintains wet soils. Indonesia trends wetter during the past couple months.

In Australia the recent trend has been drier again over Queensland while the south-central continent drought condition is most harsh.

Far southern Africa witnessed marginal beneficial rainfall the past 2 months while tropical eastern Africa south of the equator has been very wet.