Daily Market Feature: Canadian Summer Outlook: Enhanced Fire Risk West/Southwest Canada

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Discussion: The Canadian Meteorological Center issued their probabilistic and deterministic meteorological summer forecasts yesterday. The summer temperature outlook indicates above normal risk of a warm-to-hot summer across southern Canada (Fig. 1). The outlook is also drier than normal across Southwest Canada centered on Alberta (Fig. 2). The risk of conditions developing to produce above normal fire risk is evident.

The prevailing pattern producing the depicted climate pattern is a cool trough over northern Canada forcing anomalous warmth south of the trough pattern. The anomalous warmth is generated by drought in the U.S. (and Canada).

Climate Impact Company favors an eastward displacement of the trough closer to the expanding cool SSTA pool in the North Atlantic southwest and south of Greenland. Therefore a cooler than indicated scenario is likely in southeast Canada.

If correct, the eastward displacement of the trough would amplify the already moderately strong western Canada ridge pattern.

Fig. 1: Canadian Meteorological Center temperature probability forecast for JUN/JUL/AUG 2018.

Fig. 2: Canadian Meteorological Center precipitation probability forecast for JUN/JUL/AUG 2018.