Fig. 1-2: Landfall forecasts of Isaias via the HMON and HWRF models for next Monday.
Discussion: The HMON and HWRF tropical cyclone models indicate different scenarios for next Monday with Tropical Storm Isaias. The HMON model takes Isaias into the Cape Hatteras area toward dawn Monday as a 970 MB strong category 1 hurricane featuring 90 mph wind near the center of the storm (Fig. 1). This scenario is possible if Isaias survives the short-term trek across Hispaniola and is able to regain strength over 85-86F water east of Florida and South Carolina. The HWRF model is much more conservative indicating 997MB pressure and a max wind near 62 mph with a NC/SC state line landfall at 11AM Monday (Fig. 2). The bottom line is forecast confidence is low. However, the risk of a landfall into the coastal Carolinas is relatively certain at this long-lead. Intensity varies but a strong category 1 hurricane is possible.