Discussion: Starting in the Pacific basin a large (warm) Kelvin Wave shifting slowly eastward through the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean recently weakened La Nina and if progression to the northwest coast of South America occurs during summer would initiate El Nino. If the warming stalls an El Nino Modoki may form (Central Pacific-biased El Nino warming). Presence of this warming does imply some sort of warm ENSO episode is ahead unless the warming reverses and begins to cool.
In the equatorial Atlantic subsurface waters are cool and trending cooler which does not bode well for upper ocean energy to drive an active tropical cyclone season set to begin in 2weeks. The subsurface cool waters could reverse warmer but there’s a long way to go – if that happens- to provide necessary upper ocean heat to help hurricanes develop.
Given the trend toward El Nino and cool waters of the subsurface tropical Atlantic the 2018 hurricane season looks nowhere near as bad as last year.
In the Indian Ocean the subsurface eastern equatorial waters are cool and trending cooler implying a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) pattern may be ahead. The Bureau of Meteorology/Australia is forecasting the –IOD pattern for JUN/JUL/AUG 2018. This is a big call! The +IOD regime would maintain the Australian drought. +IOD also inspires a wet Indian Monsoon.