Discussion: Forecast models have backed off the idea of U.S. arctic outbreaks through the first 1-2 weeks of February. However, pulses of arctic air remain in the forecast through next week. In addition, 3-4 snowfall events are likely across the Midwest, Ohio Valley and into the Northeast U.S. over the next 10+ days likely to sustain colder temperatures and slow any warming for these areas. South of the snowfall zones (Fig. 1-4) the February warming will emerge.
Fig. 1: GFS depiction of 4-8 in. of snow Feb. 3-5 in the Northeast U.S.
Fig. 2: GFS depiction of 5-15 in. of snow Feb. 5-7 in the Northeast U.S.
Fig. 3: GFS depiction of 4-15 in. of snow Feb. 7-9 in the Northeast U.S.
Fig. 4: GFS depiction of 4-12 in. of snow Feb. 9-11 in the Northeast U.S.