Latest NOAA Long-lead Forecasts

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Explaining implied climate risks based on just-issued NOAA long-lead probability climate forecasts.

Included: Potential historical northern U.S. winter snowfall, more soaked fields for spring agriculture (historical flood risk driven by snow melt on the table) and flood risk Mid-Atlantic next summer.

Fig. 1-2: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability outlook for January 2020.

January 2020: Cold risk across the northern U.S. where that region experiences a significant mid-winter cold. New England is included. The storm track is aligned Texas to the Mid-Atlantic and with cold air supply just north look for considerable snow and ice events Arkansas/Tennessee to Virginia/Pennsylvania in January.

Fig. 3-4: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability outlook for JAN/FEB/MAR 2020.

JAN/FEB/MAR 2020: Cold and stormy risk across the North. Climate Impact Company is anticipating historic snowfall across the northern U.S. for quarter 1 of 2020.

Fig. 5-6: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability outlook for MAR/APR/MAY 2020.

MAR/APR/MAY 2020: Very wet soils continue across the agriculture belts for spring. NOAA/CPC indicates dry risk over California and the Southwest which could easily extend eastward to Texas. The warm risk is likely most evident in late spring (when early summer hot temperatures appear).

Fig. 7-8: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability outlook for JUN/JUL/AUG 2020.

JUN/JUL/AUG 2020: Climate models forecast a very warm Gulf Stream off the Mid-Atlantic which means higher than normal sea height and increased risk of a wet climate. The highest risk is centered on Maryland. Watch out for sneaky wet episodes and flooding next summer in the Mid-Atlantic. Another hot summer based on this forecast.