Daily Feature: ECMWF (“European model”) and ERCOT pictures.

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ECMWF (“European model”) And ERCOT Pictures. Monday snow and FRIGID Tuesday morning!

Fig. 1: A weaker cold front shifts into central Texas Thursday night. The ECMWF indicates potential for 1-3 in. of snow tomorrow night in north-central Texas to near Dallas. The model appears to be over-doing the snow risk as temperatures are too marginal. However, some sleet or freezing rain is possible in this stretch tomorrow evening to early Friday morning.

Fig. 2: REAL snow associated with the incoming arctic air mass this weekend appears Saturday night/daytime Sunday in northwest Texas where several in. is likely and up to 8 in. possible in far northern Texas. Rapidly dropping temperatures with a 25-45 mph northeast wind is associated with the snow.

Fig. 3: Sunday night and Monday are snowy across most of Texas. Wind shifts to north and northeast 25-45 mph with widening sleet changing to all snow with accumulations exceeding 4 in. for much of the state. Snow just-misses the Houston area but could touch the central Texas coast.

Fig. 4: The ECMWF minimum temperature forecast for Monday indicates -6F in northwest Texas to 30’s/low 40’s at the coast. Temperatures may not rise much during the day.

Fig. 5: ECMWF projected frigid morning for Tuesday with teens on the upper Texas coast to as cold as -19F in the far northwest part of the state.