Bureau of Meteorology/Australia Cuts El Nino

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The Bureau of Meteorology/Australia adjusts their Nino34 SSTA forecast to indicate below El Nino threshold by March.

Discussion: The Bureau of Meteorology/Australia recognizes recent cooling of the equatorial East Pacific and applies that trend to the ENSO forecast for 2019. Indicated is weak El Nino lingering through JAN/FEB 2019 weakening to neutral phase for northern hemisphere meteorological spring. The inability of the atmosphere to respond to eastern equatorial Pacific warming to create conditions manifesting El Nino is accelerating. The conditions needed to cause an El Nino climate to develop, i.e. abundant eastern equatorial Pacific convection and a complete shutdown of trade winds is unlikely to develop. As the atmosphere has failed to respond to eastern equatorial warming the plentiful subsurface anomalous warm water to fuel El Nino has started to diminish. The 2019 ENSO phase is most likely neutral leaving other aspects of climate as primary motivators of the prevailing weather patterns.