Another Excessive Rain Event in 10+ Days

Weekly ENSO Discussion
03/28/2018, 3:29 pm EDT
Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) Forecast: Severe Storms Texas Tuesday
04/01/2018, 9:15 am EDT
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Discussion: Radar estimates 6-7 in. of rain northwest, north and northeast of Houston this moving and flash flood warnings are in effect for much of East Texas. Similar amount of rain has fallen the past 24 hours in northeast Louisiana where flash flooding is also occurring. Flooding of the central/south Mississippi River basin (and tributaries) continues aggravated by this next major rainfall event.

Another excessive rainfall event is consistently indicated in about 1-12 days. The overnight and early morning GFS model projects near 10 in. of rain centered on Alabama/Tennessee. The event is supported by the contribution of tropical moisture to the U.S. storm track by a transient Madden Julian oscillation.

Excessive rains, produced by MJO episodes continues to occur mainly in the Mid-South to Southeast U.S. this spring season.

Be prepared for additional flooding potentially historic in intensity.

Fig. 1: Last night’s GFS rainfall forecast for April 7-12.

Fig. 2: This morning’s GFS rainfall forecast for April 7-12.