2-Week Soil Moisture CHANGE Forecast by GFS is Wetter Texas

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Change in the U.S. soil moisture trend the next 2 weeks is indicated by the GFS (and other models). The Corn Belt into the East U.S. is drier as recent heavy rain episodes abate. Heavy rains shift to Texas and the Mid-South!

Discussion: Yesterday’s GFS 2-week soil moisture anomaly outlook indicates a pattern change in the East as recent extreme wet episodes abate and a drier (and anomalous warm-to-hot) regime settles (Fig. 1). Meanwhile soil moisture trends less dry in parched Texas/Oklahoma due to frequent thunderstorms arriving midweek and lasting into early next week. The Corn Belt is sometimes showery but excessive amount is not expected and generally warmer-than-normal temperatures leads to high evaporation rates. The ECMWF Ensemble (model) indicates where most of the anomalous rainfall takes place the next 15 days focused on Texas and the Mid-South suppressing August heat (Fig. 1). Western drought continues! The most recent U.S. drought monitor analysis provided by NOAA (Fig. 2).

Fig. 1: ECMWF ENS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast indicates the wet belt shifts to Texas.

Fig. 2: The most recent U.S. drought monitor identifying drought areas and their intensity.