2-Week Soil Moisture CHANGE Forecast by GFS is Wetter Texas

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Discussion: Yesterday’s GFS 2-week soil moisture anomaly outlook indicates a pattern change in the East as recent extreme wet episodes abate and a drier (and anomalous warm-to-hot) regime settles (Fig. 1). Meanwhile soil moisture trends less dry in parched Texas/Oklahoma due to frequent thunderstorms arriving midweek and lasting into early next week. The Corn Belt is sometimes showery but excessive amount is not expected and generally warmer-than-normal temperatures leads to high evaporation rates. The ECMWF Ensemble (model) indicates where most of the anomalous rainfall takes place the next 15 days focused on Texas and the Mid-South suppressing August heat (Fig. 1). Western drought continues! The most recent U.S. drought monitor analysis provided by NOAA (Fig. 2).

Fig. 1: ECMWF ENS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast indicates the wet belt shifts to Texas.

Fig. 2: The most recent U.S. drought monitor identifying drought areas and their intensity.