MEGACLUSTERS Foreshadow U.S. Pattern Change Just-After Mid-June

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Mega-cluster no. 2 (of the 4 available) appears to be the best consensus of all possible depictions of the upper air pattern across the U.S. in 15 days. A central North America upper trough will deliver a wet pattern to the East-Central/East U.S. while anomalous heat is pushed south to Texas and westwad to the Pacific Northwest in 15 days.

Discussion: In 15 days the consensus of all models indicates a 500 MB trough in central North America. The ridge is in the Northwest and across Florida. The result? Texas and Northwest heat whereas East-Central/East rains suppress heat risk.

Fig. 1-2: Mega-cluster (all models) showing most likely and second-most likely 500 MB anomaly pattern in 15 days.

Fig. 3-4: Mega-cluster (all models) showing least likely 500 MB anomaly pattern in 15 days.