Super Cold Pattern East Reverses Milder in 2 Weeks

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Super cold emerges across the Central and East U.S. this week with record cold possible across snow cover in the northern third of the U.S. The cold core shifts from The Midwest this week to The Northeast days 6-10. However, due to Pacific influences the East flips warmer than normal as the middle third of January approaches.

Days 6-10/11-15 commentary: Intense cold across the Midwest to the Northeast U.S. in the 6-10 day period and a colder trend since late last week. In the 11-15 day period models vary widely. Milder Pacific influence is forecast. The outlook is a consensus between the GFS and ECM ensemble. Macro-scale (climate) support favors a colder solution in the extended-range.

Days 16-20 commentary:  Low confidence forecast as models disagree. Warm shift into the East is expected while regenerating cold appears in the Northwest.

Climate factors commentary: Stratospheric warming over northwest North America coupled with a shift of MJO to phase 3 favors re-emerging cold across western North America and warming for eastern North America.

Snow commentary: Snow cover has expanded in recent days and will provide a cold carpet for incoming arctic air this week. The ECM 10-day snowfall forecast indicates more snow for the Northwest and Northeast.