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12/07/2023, 12:34 pm EST
Highlight: 12Z GFS keeps the pattern warm. Fig. 1-2: The U.S. 12Z GFS 15-day temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast. Discussion: The 12Z GFS provides no surprises maintaining a warm pattern across North America over the next 15 days (Fig. 1). The Canadian climate is super warm and indicates no risk of any early season arctic chill. The 15-day forecast projects a Southern U.S. storm track most intense across the Gulf of Mexico while storminess affects the East Coast this weekend and again in the 11-15-day period (Fig. 2). The U.S. population weight HDD forecast is warm, especially through mid-month (Table 1). Dates HDD Forecast 12-Hr Change 24-Hr Change 30-Year NML 10-Year NML Dec. 1-7 145.6 +0.1 0.0 171.3 165.6 Dec. 8-14 154.8 -1.6 -3.5 184.0 175.0 Dec. 15-21 153.5 +4.5 -3.2 193.5 184.5 Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.
12/07/2023, 11:26 am EST
Highlight: Heavy rain/high wind East SUN/Early MON. Refineries… Delaware City, DE and Paulsboro, NJ: Variable cloudiness today. Mostly sunny, milder tomorrow. Partly cloudy on Saturday. Windy and rainy on Sunday. Partly cloudy/breezy on Monday. Toledo, OH: Mostly sunny, mild today. Sunny and breezy on Friday. Showery on Saturday. Heavy rain ending as snow Sunday. Clearing on Monday. New Orleans, LA: Mostly sunny today. Increasing clouds on Friday. Chance of showers on Saturday. Clearing, breezy, and cooler on Sunday. Sunny on Monday. California Market… Martinez (near Concord): Showers likely today. Clearing on Friday. Sunny on Saturday. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy on Sunday. Sunny on Monday. Torrance, CA (using Santa Maria, CA): Sunny and breezy today. Sunny, breezy, and warmer tomorrow. Sunny and warm plus breezy on Saturday/Sunday. Sunny and warm on Monday. HQ… Parsippany: Increasing clouds, chilly today. Sunny, milder Friday. Partly cloudy Saturday. Showery and windy on Sunday. Windy/colder on Monday. Houston: Mostly sunny today. Showers likely Friday. More showers likely on Saturday. Sunny on Sunday/Monday. Calgary: Mostly sunny today/Friday/Saturday. Mostly cloudy on Sunday. Clearing Monday.
12/07/2023, 11:24 am EST
Highlight: Heavy rain/high wind East Sunday lasting into Monday. Richmond, VA… THU: Mostly sunny. High 52. Low 34. FRI: Sunny. High 58. Low 39. SAT: Partly cloudy. High 66. Low 52. SUN: Showery/breezy. High 69. Low 35. MON: Partial clearing, breezy. High 53. Low 28. Days 6-10: 0.0. 40% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: 0.0. 80% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 54. Low 34. Charleston, WV… THU: Mostly sunny. High 53. Low 35. FRI: Sunny. High 64. Low 40. SAT: Showers late day. High 66. Low 50. SUN: Heavy rain, windy. High 60. Low 27. MON: Variable cloudiness. High 40. Low 25. Days 6-10: 0.0. 20% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +0.5. 50% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 50. Low 31. Baltimore, MD… THU: Mostly cloudy. High 47. Low 33. FRI: Mostly sunny. High 56. Low 37. SAT: Partly cloudy. High 57. Low 48. SUN: Heavy rain/windy. High 65. Low 35. MON: Partly cloudy, windy. High 46. Low 28. Days 6-10: 0.0. 40% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: 0.0. 70% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 50. Low 31. Philadelphia, PA… THU: Mostly cloudy. High 45. Low 35. FRI: Mostly sunny. High 53. Low 39. SAT: Partly cloudy. High 56. Low 50. SUN: Heavy rain/windy. High 65. Low 37. MON: Partly cloudy, windy. High 46. Low 31. Days 6-10: 0.0. 40% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +0.5. 70% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 48. Low 33. New York City… THU: Mostly cloudy. High 43. Low 37. FRI: Partly cloudy. High 48. Low 42. SAT: Partly cloudy. High 53. Low 48. SUN: Heavy rain/windy. High 62. Low 42. MON: Showery, windy. High 46. Low 35. Days 6-10: 0.0. 40% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +1.0. 70% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 48. Low 37. Albany, NY… THU: Increasing clouds. High 36. Low 28. FRI: Mostly cloudy. High 42. Low 32. SAT: Partly cloudy. High 49. Low 44. SUN: Rain, heaviest at night. High 59. Low 35. MON: Showers, windy. Snow change by late day. High 39. Low 27. Days 6-10: 0.0. 30% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +2.0. 40% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 41. Low 25. Hartford, CT… THU: Partly cloudy. High 39. Low 27. FRI: Partly cloudy. High 46. Low 31. SAT: Mostly sunny. High 52. Low 47. SUN: Rain, windy. High 62. Low 48. MON: Showery, windy. High 51. Low 27. Days 6-10: 0.0. 30% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +1.5. 50% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 43. Low 27. Boston, MA… THU: Mostly sunny. High 36. Low 30. FRI: Partly cloudy. High 43. Low 33. SAT: Mostly sunny. High 52. Low 49. SUN: Rain, windy. High 63. Low 52. MON: Showery, windy. High 53. Low 31. Days 6-10: 0.0. 30% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +2.0. 60% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 45. Low 32. Binghamton, NY… THU: Cloudy. High 37. Low 32. FRI: Mostly cloudy. High 43. Low 38. SAT: Increasing clouds. High 49. Low 46. SUN: Rain, heavy at night. High 54. Low 37. MON: Over to snow, windy. High 38. Low 27. Days 6-10: 0.0. 30% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +2.5. 40% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 37. Low 24. Williamsport, PA… THU: Mostly cloudy. High 43. Low 31. FRI: Partly cloudy. High 48. Low 35. SAT: Increasing clouds. High 49. Low 46. SUN: Heavy rain. High 56. Low 35. MON: Showery, breezy. High 39. Low 28. Days 6-10: 0.0. 20% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +1.0. 40% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 42. Low 28. Pittsburgh, PA… THU: Becoming partly cloudy. High 47. Low 36. FRI: Mostly sunny. High 55. Low 45. SAT: Increasing clouds. Heavy rain at night. High 59. Low 52. SUN: Heavy rain. Over to snow at night. High 57. Low 29. MON: Snow showers. High 38. Low 28. Days 6-10: 0.0. 20% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +1.0. 30% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 43. Low 29. Cleveland, OH… THU: Mostly sunny. High 47. Low 37. FRI: Mostly sunny, breezy. High 53. Low 43. SAT: Showers late day. Heavy rain at night. High 58. Low 37. SUN: Rain to snow. High 40. Low 29. MON: Partly cloudy. High 39. Low 29. Days 6-10: 0.0. 10% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +1.5. 20% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 43. Low 31. Toledo, OH… THU: Mostly sunny. High 48. Low 38. FRI: Mostly sunny, breezy. High 53. Low 41. SAT: Showers. Heavy rain at night. High 61. Low 33. SUN: Any snow ending. High 38. Low 27. MON: Partly cloudy. High 40. Low 28. Days 6-10: 0.0. 10% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +1.5. 20% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 42. Low 28. Columbus, OH… THU: Mostly sunny. High 49. Low 37. FRI: Mostly sunny, breezy. High 55. Low 44. SAT: Showers. Heavy rain at night. High 61. Low 35. SUN: Rain to snow. High 42. Low 26. MON: Partly cloudy. High 40. Low 27. Days 6-10: 0.0. 10% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +1.5. 20% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 44. Low 29. Covington, KY… THU: Mostly sunny. High 51. Low 40. FRI: Mostly sunny, breezy. High 54. Low 44. SAT: Showers. Heavy rain at night. High 62. Low 37. SUN: Rain ending. High 43. Low 26. MON: Mostly sunny. High 41. Low 29. Days 6-10: 0.0. 10% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +1.0. 30% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 46. Low 30. Columbia, SC… THU: Sunny. High 58. Low 38. FRI: Mostly sunny. High 63. Low 47. SAT: Variable cloudiness. High 71. Low 57.igh 73. Low 42. SUN: Showers, thunderstorms. High 70. Low 57. MON: Sunny. High 55. Low 31. Days 6-10: -0.5. 60% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -0.5. 90% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 60. Low 38. Charleston, SC… THU: Sunny. High 60. Low 43. FRI: Mostly sunny. High 66. Low 54. SAT: Variable cloudiness. High 75. Low 58. SUN: Showers, thunderstorms. High 75. Low 38. MON: Sunny. High 58. Low 36. Days 6-10: -1.0. 110% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -1.5. 120% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 64. Low 43. Houston, TX… THU: Mostly sunny. High 68. Low 57. FRI: Showers. High 75. Low 51. SAT: Showers. High 76. Low 42. SUN: Clearing. High 58. Low 39. MON: Sunny. High 61. Low 45. Days 6-10: -1.0. 110% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -1.5. 120% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 67. Low 47. Birmingham, AL… THU: Sunny. High 60. Low 40. FRI: Partly cloudy. High 64. Low 52. SAT: Showers. High 69. Low 54. SUN: Showers ending late. High 56. Low 31. MON: Sunny. High 53. Low 33. Days 6-10: -1.0. 50% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: 0.0. 80% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 59. Low 39. Jacksonville, FL… THU: Sunny. High 65. Low 46. FRI: Partly cloudy. High 69. Low 55. SAT: Chance of showers. High 76. Low 63. SUN: Showers and thunderstorms. High 74. Low 37. MON: Sunny. High 57. Low 40. Days 6-10: -1.5. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -1.5. 130% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 69. Low 47. Calgary… THU: Partly cloudy. High 40. Low 19. FRI: Partly cloudy. High 36. Low 13. SAT: Mostly sunny. High 32. Low 17. SUN: Partly cloudy. High 39. Low 16. MON: Mostly sunny. High 35. Low 15. Days 6-10: +4.0. 20% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +7.5. 40% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 33. Low 12.